Models
ASHAPURA MINECHEM LTDASHAPURMINMinerals & Mining
₹898per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹898implied FY26 P/E 21.1× · EV/EBITDA 17.6×
Against CMP ₹542.00+65.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies9.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹643₹1,409
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹455₹925
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,423 |
| PV of terminal value | 8,285 |
| Enterprise value | 9,708 |
| less net debt | (1,128) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 8,580 |
| ÷ 9.56 crore shares | ₹898 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 934 | 1,020 | 1,124 | 1,251 | 1,409 |
| 10.50% | 844 | 916 | 1,001 | 1,102 | 1,227 |
| 11.00% | 767 | 827 | 898 | 981 | 1,081 |
| 11.50% | 701 | 752 | 811 | 881 | 962 |
| 12.00% | 643 | 687 | 737 | 796 | 864 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹542.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 598 · 872 · 1,233 |
| Draws below the CMP | 5% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.38 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,831 | 2,654 | 2,739 | 5,237 | 6,808 | 8,851 | 11,506 | 14,958 | 19,445 |
| growth % | 43.3 | 44.9 | 3.2 | 91.2 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 173 | 345 | 370 | 550 | 715 | 929 | 1,208 | 1,571 | 2,042 |
| margin % | 9.4 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| less depreciation | (73) | (79) | (78) | (133) | (170) | (221) | (288) | (374) | (486) |
| EBIT | 100 | 266 | 292 | 418 | 545 | 708 | 920 | 1,197 | 1,556 |
| less tax on EBIT | (28) | (36) | (47) | (62) | (80) | (104) | |||
| NOPAT | 390 | 508 | 661 | 859 | 1,116 | 1,451 | |||
| add depreciation | 73 | 79 | 78 | 133 | 170 | 221 | 288 | 374 | 486 |
| less capex | (134) | (332) | (401) | (279) | (361) | (418) | (477) | (535) | (583) |
| less working-capital build | — | (195) | (253) | (329) | (428) | (556) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (37) | (184) | (212) | — | 123 | 210 | 340 | 528 | 798 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 116 | 180 | 262 | 366 | 499 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,444, dividends at 2.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 418 | 545 | 708 | 920 | 1,197 | 1,556 |
| Interest at 9% on debt | (130) | (130) | (130) | (130) | (130) | |
| Profit before tax | 415 | 578 | 791 | 1,067 | 1,426 | |
| Profit after tax | 401 | 387 | 539 | 738 | 995 | 1,330 |
| Dividends | (9) | (9) | (12) | (17) | (23) | (31) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 316 | 308 | 385 | 587 | 970 | 1,616 |
| Working capital | 651 | 846 | 1,100 | 1,429 | 1,857 | 2,413 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,731 | 3,921 | 4,118 | 4,308 | 4,469 | 4,566 |
| Debt | 1,444 | 1,444 | 1,444 | 1,444 | 1,444 | 1,444 |
| Equity | 1,645 | 2,023 | 2,550 | 3,270 | 4,243 | 5,542 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 362 | 507 | 696 | 941 | 1,260 | |
| Investing (capex) | (361) | (418) | (477) | (535) | (583) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (9) | (12) | (17) | (23) | (31) | |
| Net change in cash | (7) | 77 | 202 | 384 | 646 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1 | 89 | 218 | 406 | 676 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 10.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹898 | 65.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.