Models
ASHOK LEYLAND LTDASHOKLEYAgricultural Commercial & Construction Vehicles
₹198per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹198implied FY26 P/E 33.5× · EV/EBITDA 16.8×
Against CMP ₹163.75+21.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies12.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹128₹339
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹132₹215
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 34,133 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,40,051 |
| Enterprise value | 1,74,183 |
| less net debt | (57,655) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,16,528 |
| ÷ 587.39 crore shares | ₹198 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 209 | 232 | 261 | 296 | 339 |
| 10.50% | 184 | 203 | 227 | 255 | 289 |
| 11.00% | 162 | 179 | 198 | 221 | 249 |
| 11.50% | 144 | 158 | 174 | 193 | 216 |
| 12.00% | 128 | 140 | 154 | 170 | 189 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹163.75; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 135 · 197 · 274 |
| Draws below the CMP | 26% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 41,673 | 45,791 | 48,535 | 56,362 | 65,380 | 75,841 | 87,975 | 1,02,051 | 1,18,380 |
| growth % | 58.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 16.1 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 5,141 | 7,859 | 9,223 | 10,361 | 12,030 | 13,955 | 16,187 | 18,777 | 21,782 |
| margin % | 12.3 | 17.2 | 19.0 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 |
| less depreciation | (900) | (927) | (1,087) | (1,138) | (1,308) | (1,517) | (1,760) | (2,041) | (2,368) |
| EBIT | 4,241 | 6,931 | 8,137 | 9,223 | 10,722 | 12,438 | 14,428 | 16,736 | 19,414 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2,592) | (3,013) | (3,495) | (4,054) | (4,703) | (5,455) | |||
| NOPAT | 6,631 | 7,709 | 8,943 | 10,374 | 12,033 | 13,959 | |||
| add depreciation | 900 | 927 | 1,087 | 1,138 | 1,308 | 1,517 | 1,760 | 2,041 | 2,368 |
| less capex | (929) | (1,134) | (1,648) | (2,945) | (3,400) | (3,413) | (3,343) | (3,164) | (2,841) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (5,428) | (7,392) | (1,520) | — | 5,617 | 7,047 | 8,790 | 10,911 | 13,485 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 5,332 | 6,026 | 6,772 | 7,572 | 8,432 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 63,936, dividends at 52.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 9,223 | 10,722 | 12,438 | 14,428 | 16,736 | 19,414 |
| Interest at 8.3% on debt | (5,307) | (5,307) | (5,307) | (5,307) | (5,307) | |
| Profit before tax | 5,416 | 7,131 | 9,121 | 11,430 | 14,108 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,471 | 3,894 | 5,127 | 6,558 | 8,218 | 10,143 |
| Dividends | (1,835) | (2,060) | (2,712) | (3,469) | (4,347) | (5,366) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6,281 | 6,023 | 6,542 | 8,047 | 10,795 | 15,099 |
| Working capital | (1,529) | (1,529) | (1,529) | (1,529) | (1,529) | (1,529) |
| Net block and other assets | 96,289 | 98,381 | 1,00,277 | 1,01,860 | 1,02,983 | 1,03,456 |
| Debt | 63,936 | 63,936 | 63,936 | 63,936 | 63,936 | 63,936 |
| Equity | 18,546 | 20,380 | 22,795 | 25,884 | 29,755 | 34,532 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 5,201 | 6,644 | 8,318 | 10,259 | 12,511 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3,400) | (3,413) | (3,343) | (3,164) | (2,841) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2,060) | (2,712) | (3,469) | (4,347) | (5,366) | |
| Net change in cash | (258) | 519 | 1,505 | 2,748 | 4,304 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,802 | 3,231 | 4,975 | 7,095 | 9,670 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 18.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹198 | 21.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.