Models
ASIAN ENERGY SERVICES LTDASIANENEOil
₹142per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹142implied FY26 P/E 11.1× · EV/EBITDA 8.6×
Against CMP ₹534.00−73.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3197%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹99₹228
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹230₹566
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 22 |
| PV of terminal value | 716 |
| Enterprise value | 738 |
| less net debt | (49) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 689 |
| ÷ 4.86 crore shares | ₹142 |
97% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 147 | 162 | 180 | 201 | 228 |
| 10.50% | 132 | 145 | 159 | 176 | 197 |
| 11.00% | 119 | 130 | 142 | 156 | 173 |
| 11.50% | 108 | 117 | 127 | 139 | 153 |
| 12.00% | 99 | 106 | 115 | 125 | 136 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹534.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 70 · 138 · 207 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.31 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 110 | 305 | 465 | 791 | 1,028 | 1,337 | 1,738 | 2,259 | 2,937 |
| growth % | (57.8) | 177.5 | 52.4 | 70.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (25) | 40 | 66 | 86 | 112 | 146 | 189 | 246 | 320 |
| margin % | (22.6) | 13.1 | 14.2 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| less depreciation | (22) | (17) | (18) | (19) | (25) | (32) | (42) | (54) | (70) |
| EBIT | (47) | 23 | 48 | 67 | 87 | 114 | 148 | 192 | 250 |
| less tax on EBIT | (17) | (23) | (30) | (38) | (50) | (65) | |||
| NOPAT | 50 | 65 | 84 | 109 | 142 | 185 | |||
| add depreciation | 22 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 25 | 32 | 42 | 54 | 70 |
| less capex | (1) | 0 | (19) | (61) | (79) | (87) | (92) | (92) | (85) |
| less working-capital build | — | (36) | (46) | (60) | (78) | (102) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (4) | (50) | (30) | — | (25) | (17) | (1) | 26 | 69 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (24) | (14) | (1) | 18 | 43 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 158, dividends at 8.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 67 | 87 | 114 | 148 | 192 | 250 |
| Interest at 11.7% on debt | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | |
| Profit before tax | 69 | 95 | 129 | 174 | 231 | |
| Profit after tax | 51 | 51 | 70 | 96 | 128 | 171 |
| Dividends | (4) | (4) | (6) | (8) | (11) | (15) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 109 | 65 | 29 | 6 | 7 | 47 |
| Working capital | 119 | 154 | 200 | 261 | 339 | 440 |
| Net block and other assets | 691 | 746 | 800 | 851 | 889 | 903 |
| Debt | 158 | 158 | 158 | 158 | 158 | 158 |
| Equity | 495 | 542 | 606 | 693 | 811 | 967 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 40 | 56 | 77 | 104 | 140 | |
| Investing (capex) | (79) | (87) | (92) | (92) | (85) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (6) | (8) | (11) | (15) | |
| Net change in cash | (43) | (37) | (23) | 1 | 41 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (39) | (31) | (15) | 12 | 55 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 10.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹142 | (73.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.