Models
ASIAN PAINTS LIMITEDASIANPAINTConsumer Durables
₹591per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹591implied FY26 P/E 11.9× · EV/EBITDA 8.9×
Against CMP ₹2,472.50−76.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹456₹860
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,115₹2,986
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 14,706 |
| PV of terminal value | 43,580 |
| Enterprise value | 58,286 |
| less net debt | (1,620) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 56,666 |
| ÷ 95.92 crore shares | ₹591 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 611 | 656 | 710 | 777 | 860 |
| 10.50% | 563 | 601 | 645 | 698 | 764 |
| 11.00% | 522 | 554 | 591 | 634 | 687 |
| 11.50% | 487 | 514 | 545 | 581 | 624 |
| 12.00% | 456 | 479 | 506 | 536 | 572 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,472.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 482 · 585 · 714 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.14 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 34,489 | 35,495 | 33,906 | 35,584 | 37,363 | 39,231 | 41,192 | 43,252 | 45,415 |
| growth % | 18.5 | 2.9 | (4.5) | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 6,211 | 7,585 | 5,643 | 6,538 | 6,875 | 7,218 | 7,579 | 7,958 | 8,356 |
| margin % | 18.0 | 21.4 | 16.6 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 |
| less depreciation | (858) | (853) | (1,026) | (1,229) | (1,308) | (1,373) | (1,442) | (1,514) | (1,590) |
| EBIT | 5,353 | 6,732 | 4,617 | 5,309 | 5,567 | 5,845 | 6,138 | 6,445 | 6,767 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,465) | (1,537) | (1,613) | (1,694) | (1,779) | (1,868) | |||
| NOPAT | 3,844 | 4,031 | 4,232 | 4,444 | 4,666 | 4,899 | |||
| add depreciation | 858 | 853 | 1,026 | 1,229 | 1,308 | 1,373 | 1,442 | 1,514 | 1,590 |
| less capex | (1,446) | (2,496) | (1,830) | (1,487) | (1,569) | (1,648) | (1,730) | (1,817) | (1,907) |
| less working-capital build | — | (317) | (333) | (349) | (367) | (385) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,748 | 3,608 | 2,594 | — | 3,452 | 3,625 | 3,806 | 3,996 | 4,196 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 3,277 | 3,100 | 2,932 | 2,774 | 2,624 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,293, dividends at 56.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 5,309 | 5,567 | 5,845 | 6,138 | 6,445 | 6,767 |
| Interest at 12.4% on debt | (284) | (284) | (284) | (284) | (284) | |
| Profit before tax | 5,283 | 5,561 | 5,853 | 6,160 | 6,482 | |
| Profit after tax | 4,325 | 3,825 | 4,026 | 4,238 | 4,460 | 4,693 |
| Dividends | (2,425) | (2,146) | (2,259) | (2,377) | (2,502) | (2,633) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 673 | 1,774 | 2,934 | 4,157 | 5,445 | 6,803 |
| Working capital | 6,347 | 6,663 | 6,996 | 7,345 | 7,712 | 8,096 |
| Net block and other assets | 27,515 | 27,777 | 28,051 | 28,340 | 28,642 | 28,960 |
| Debt | 2,293 | 2,293 | 2,293 | 2,293 | 2,293 | 2,293 |
| Equity | 22,015 | 23,694 | 25,462 | 27,322 | 29,280 | 31,340 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 4,816 | 5,067 | 5,330 | 5,607 | 5,898 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,569) | (1,648) | (1,730) | (1,817) | (1,907) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2,146) | (2,259) | (2,377) | (2,502) | (2,633) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,101 | 1,160 | 1,223 | 1,289 | 1,357 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 3,246 | 3,419 | 3,600 | 3,791 | 3,990 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 18.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹591 | (76.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.