Models
ASM TECHNOLOGIES LTD.BSE 526433IT - Software
₹453per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹453implied FY26 P/E 7.6× · EV/EBITDA 7.8×
Against CMP ₹6,900.00−93.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31112%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹282₹799
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,100₹7,248
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (94) |
| PV of terminal value | 862 |
| Enterprise value | 768 |
| less net debt | (106) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 662 |
| ÷ 1.46 crore shares | ₹453 |
112% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 475 | 534 | 605 | 691 | 799 |
| 10.50% | 415 | 464 | 522 | 591 | 676 |
| 11.00% | 364 | 405 | 453 | 510 | 578 |
| 11.50% | 320 | 355 | 396 | 443 | 499 |
| 12.00% | 282 | 312 | 346 | 386 | 432 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹6,900.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 174 · 439 · 697 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.32 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 220 | 202 | 289 | 529 | 687 | 893 | 1,161 | 1,509 | 1,962 |
| growth % | 15.0 | (8.5) | 43.2 | 83.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 21 | 6 | 47 | 99 | 128 | 167 | 217 | 282 | 367 |
| margin % | 9.4 | 2.8 | 16.3 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (11) | (10) | (14) | (18) | (23) | (30) | (39) | (51) |
| EBIT | 12 | (6) | 37 | 85 | 111 | 144 | 187 | 243 | 316 |
| less tax on EBIT | (24) | (31) | (40) | (52) | (68) | (88) | |||
| NOPAT | 61 | 80 | 104 | 135 | 175 | 228 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 23 | 30 | 39 | 51 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | 0 | (95) | (124) | (128) | (123) | (103) | (61) |
| less working-capital build | — | (47) | (61) | (80) | (104) | (135) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 20 | (1) | (23) | — | (73) | (62) | (37) | 8 | 83 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (69) | (53) | (29) | 5 | 52 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 113, dividends at 16.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 85 | 111 | 144 | 187 | 243 | 316 |
| Interest at 9.3% on debt | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Profit before tax | 100 | 133 | 176 | 233 | 305 | |
| Profit after tax | 61 | 72 | 96 | 127 | 168 | 221 |
| Dividends | (10) | (12) | (16) | (22) | (28) | (37) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | (87) | (172) | (239) | (267) | (229) |
| Working capital | 157 | 205 | 266 | 346 | 450 | 585 |
| Net block and other assets | 339 | 445 | 550 | 642 | 706 | 716 |
| Debt | 113 | 113 | 113 | 113 | 113 | 113 |
| Equity | 307 | 367 | 447 | 553 | 693 | 876 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 43 | 58 | 78 | 103 | 137 | |
| Investing (capex) | (124) | (128) | (123) | (103) | (61) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (12) | (16) | (22) | (28) | (37) | |
| Net change in cash | (93) | (86) | (66) | (28) | 38 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (81) | (69) | (45) | 0 | 75 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 18.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹453 | (93.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.