Models
ASSO ALCOHOLS & BREW LTDASALCBRBeverages
₹467per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹467implied FY26 P/E 7.2× · EV/EBITDA 7.0×
Against CMP ₹677.00−31.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies9.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹358₹685
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹661₹1,277
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 257 |
| PV of terminal value | 736 |
| Enterprise value | 994 |
| less net debt | (55) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 939 |
| ÷ 2.01 crore shares | ₹467 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 484 | 520 | 564 | 618 | 685 |
| 10.50% | 445 | 475 | 511 | 554 | 607 |
| 11.00% | 412 | 438 | 467 | 503 | 545 |
| 11.50% | 383 | 405 | 430 | 460 | 494 |
| 12.00% | 358 | 377 | 399 | 423 | 452 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹677.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 390 · 468 · 562 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.70 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,097 | 1,033 | 982 | 933 | 886 | 842 | 800 |
| growth % | — | (5.8) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 128 | 143 | 135 | 129 | 122 | 116 | 110 |
| margin % | 11.7 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 |
| less depreciation | (17) | (24) | (24) | (22) | (21) | (20) | (19) |
| EBIT | 111 | 118 | 112 | 106 | 101 | 96 | 91 |
| less tax on EBIT | (30) | (28) | (27) | (25) | (24) | (23) | |
| NOPAT | 89 | 84 | 80 | 76 | 72 | 68 | |
| add depreciation | 17 | 24 | 24 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 |
| less capex | (86) | (57) | (54) | (45) | (37) | (30) | (23) |
| less working-capital build | — | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (12) | — | 61 | 64 | 67 | 69 | 71 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 58 | 55 | 52 | 48 | 44 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 66, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 118 | 112 | 106 | 101 | 96 | 91 |
| Interest at 7.6% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 107 | 101 | 96 | 91 | 86 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 80 | 76 | 72 | 68 | 64 |
| Dividends | (4) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 11 | 68 | 129 | 192 | 258 | 325 |
| Working capital | 161 | 153 | 146 | 138 | 131 | 125 |
| Net block and other assets | 684 | 714 | 737 | 753 | 762 | 766 |
| Debt | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 |
| Equity | 695 | 775 | 850 | 922 | 990 | 1,055 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 112 | 106 | 100 | 95 | 90 | |
| Investing (capex) | (54) | (45) | (37) | (30) | (23) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 58 | 61 | 63 | 65 | 67 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 58 | 61 | 63 | 65 | 67 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 13.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹467 | (31.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.