Models
ASTER DM QUALITY CARE LTDASTERDMHealthcare Services
₹170per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹170implied FY26 P/E 27.5× · EV/EBITDA 10.7×
Against CMP ₹766.00−77.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹127₹255
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹519₹891
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,807 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,483 |
| Enterprise value | 9,289 |
| less net debt | (473) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 8,816 |
| ÷ 51.81 crore shares | ₹170 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 176 | 191 | 208 | 229 | 255 |
| 10.50% | 161 | 173 | 187 | 204 | 225 |
| 11.00% | 148 | 158 | 170 | 184 | 201 |
| 11.50% | 137 | 146 | 156 | 167 | 181 |
| 12.00% | 127 | 135 | 143 | 153 | 164 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹766.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 130 · 169 · 216 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.48 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,933 | 3,699 | 4,138 | 4,643 | 5,200 | 5,824 | 6,523 | 7,306 | 8,183 |
| growth % | 16.4 | (69.0) | 11.9 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,565 | 578 | 714 | 868 | 972 | 1,089 | 1,220 | 1,366 | 1,530 |
| margin % | 13.1 | 15.6 | 17.3 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 |
| less depreciation | (780) | (220) | (249) | (264) | (296) | (332) | (372) | (416) | (466) |
| EBIT | 785 | 358 | 466 | 604 | 676 | 757 | 848 | 950 | 1,064 |
| less tax on EBIT | (142) | (159) | (178) | (199) | (223) | (250) | |||
| NOPAT | 462 | 517 | 579 | 649 | 727 | 814 | |||
| add depreciation | 780 | 220 | 249 | 264 | 296 | 332 | 372 | 416 | 466 |
| less capex | (717) | (797) | (346) | (469) | (525) | (541) | (553) | (559) | (560) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,117 | (639) | 79 | — | 288 | 370 | 468 | 584 | 721 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 274 | 317 | 361 | 405 | 450 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 701, dividends at 14.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 604 | 676 | 757 | 848 | 950 | 1,064 |
| Interest at 18.3% on debt | (128) | (128) | (128) | (128) | (128) | |
| Profit before tax | 548 | 629 | 720 | 821 | 935 | |
| Profit after tax | 388 | 419 | 481 | 551 | 628 | 716 |
| Dividends | (55) | (60) | (68) | (78) | (89) | (102) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 228 | 359 | 563 | 854 | 1,251 | 1,772 |
| Working capital | (83) | (83) | (83) | (83) | (83) | (83) |
| Net block and other assets | 7,967 | 8,195 | 8,404 | 8,585 | 8,728 | 8,821 |
| Debt | 701 | 701 | 701 | 701 | 701 | 701 |
| Equity | 4,834 | 5,193 | 5,606 | 6,078 | 6,618 | 7,232 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 715 | 813 | 922 | 1,045 | 1,182 | |
| Investing (capex) | (525) | (541) | (553) | (559) | (560) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (60) | (68) | (78) | (89) | (102) | |
| Net change in cash | 131 | 204 | 292 | 396 | 521 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 190 | 272 | 370 | 486 | 622 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 18.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹170 | (77.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.