Models
ASTRA MICROWAVE LTDASTRAMICROAerospace & Defense
₹193per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹193implied FY26 P/E 9.7× · EV/EBITDA 5.8×
Against CMP ₹1,688.50−88.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹145₹288
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹851₹1,960
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 403 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,539 |
| Enterprise value | 1,942 |
| less net debt | (113) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,829 |
| ÷ 9.49 crore shares | ₹193 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 200 | 216 | 235 | 259 | 288 |
| 10.50% | 183 | 196 | 212 | 231 | 254 |
| 11.00% | 168 | 179 | 193 | 208 | 227 |
| 11.50% | 156 | 165 | 176 | 189 | 205 |
| 12.00% | 145 | 153 | 162 | 173 | 186 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,688.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 116 · 191 · 262 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.32 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 816 | 909 | 1,051 | 1,163 | 1,285 | 1,420 | 1,569 | 1,734 | 1,916 |
| growth % | 8.7 | 11.4 | 15.7 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| EBITDA | 148 | 192 | 269 | 334 | 369 | 407 | 450 | 498 | 550 |
| margin % | 18.1 | 21.1 | 25.6 | 28.7 | 28.7 | 28.7 | 28.7 | 28.7 | 28.7 |
| less depreciation | (24) | (25) | (35) | (44) | (49) | (54) | (60) | (66) | (73) |
| EBIT | 124 | 167 | 234 | 290 | 320 | 354 | 391 | 432 | 477 |
| less tax on EBIT | (78) | (86) | (95) | (105) | (116) | (128) | |||
| NOPAT | 212 | 234 | 259 | 286 | 316 | 349 | |||
| add depreciation | 24 | 25 | 35 | 44 | 49 | 54 | 60 | 66 | 73 |
| less capex | (33) | (44) | (72) | (78) | (86) | (88) | (88) | (88) | (87) |
| less working-capital build | — | (125) | (138) | (153) | (169) | (186) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (59) | (225) | (162) | — | 72 | 87 | 105 | 125 | 148 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 68 | 74 | 81 | 87 | 93 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 288, dividends at 10.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 290 | 320 | 354 | 391 | 432 | 477 |
| Interest at 15.6% on debt | (45) | (45) | (45) | (45) | (45) | |
| Profit before tax | 275 | 309 | 346 | 387 | 432 | |
| Profit after tax | 193 | 201 | 226 | 253 | 283 | 316 |
| Dividends | (21) | (22) | (24) | (27) | (31) | (34) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 175 | 192 | 222 | 266 | 328 | 409 |
| Working capital | 1,191 | 1,316 | 1,454 | 1,606 | 1,775 | 1,961 |
| Net block and other assets | 623 | 660 | 694 | 722 | 745 | 759 |
| Debt | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 |
| Equity | 1,315 | 1,494 | 1,696 | 1,921 | 2,174 | 2,456 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 125 | 142 | 160 | 180 | 203 | |
| Investing (capex) | (86) | (88) | (88) | (88) | (87) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (22) | (24) | (27) | (31) | (34) | |
| Net change in cash | 17 | 30 | 44 | 61 | 81 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 39 | 54 | 72 | 92 | 115 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10.5% | 28.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹193 | (88.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.