Models
ASTRAL LIMITEDASTRALIndustrial Products
₹413per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹413implied FY26 P/E 19.3× · EV/EBITDA 10.0×
Against CMP ₹1,411.40−70.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹322₹595
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,312₹1,769
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,116 |
| PV of terminal value | 8,261 |
| Enterprise value | 10,377 |
| less net debt | 737 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 11,114 |
| ÷ 26.90 crore shares | ₹413 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 426 | 457 | 494 | 538 | 595 |
| 10.50% | 394 | 420 | 450 | 486 | 530 |
| 11.00% | 367 | 388 | 413 | 443 | 478 |
| 11.50% | 343 | 361 | 382 | 407 | 436 |
| 12.00% | 322 | 338 | 356 | 377 | 401 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,411.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 328 · 410 · 510 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.40 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,159 | 5,641 | 5,832 | 6,569 | 7,390 | 8,313 | 9,353 | 10,522 | 11,837 |
| growth % | 17.4 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 808 | 918 | 946 | 1,039 | 1,168 | 1,314 | 1,478 | 1,662 | 1,870 |
| margin % | 15.7 | 16.3 | 16.2 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 |
| less depreciation | (178) | (198) | (243) | (292) | (325) | (366) | (412) | (463) | (521) |
| EBIT | 630 | 721 | 703 | 748 | 842 | 948 | 1,066 | 1,199 | 1,349 |
| less tax on EBIT | (200) | (226) | (254) | (286) | (321) | (362) | |||
| NOPAT | 547 | 617 | 694 | 780 | 878 | 988 | |||
| add depreciation | 178 | 198 | 243 | 292 | 325 | 366 | 412 | 463 | 521 |
| less capex | (311) | (554) | (545) | (459) | (517) | (546) | (574) | (601) | (625) |
| less working-capital build | — | (55) | (62) | (70) | (78) | (88) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 246 | 270 | 85 | — | 370 | 451 | 548 | 662 | 795 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 351 | 386 | 422 | 459 | 497 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 153, dividends at 18.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 748 | 842 | 948 | 1,066 | 1,199 | 1,349 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | |
| Profit before tax | 830 | 935 | 1,054 | 1,187 | 1,337 | |
| Profit after tax | 537 | 608 | 685 | 771 | 869 | 979 |
| Dividends | (101) | (114) | (129) | (145) | (163) | (184) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 890 | 1,137 | 1,450 | 1,845 | 2,334 | 2,937 |
| Working capital | 437 | 492 | 554 | 624 | 702 | 790 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,484 | 4,676 | 4,857 | 5,019 | 5,157 | 5,261 |
| Debt | 153 | 153 | 153 | 153 | 153 | 153 |
| Equity | 4,058 | 4,551 | 5,107 | 5,734 | 6,439 | 7,234 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 878 | 989 | 1,113 | 1,254 | 1,411 | |
| Investing (capex) | (517) | (546) | (574) | (601) | (625) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (114) | (129) | (145) | (163) | (184) | |
| Net change in cash | 246 | 314 | 394 | 490 | 602 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 361 | 442 | 539 | 653 | 787 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 15.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹413 | (70.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.