Models
ATUL LTDATULChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹2,914per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,914implied FY26 P/E 10.8× · EV/EBITDA 8.4×
Against CMP ₹6,250.50−53.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,280₹4,175
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹5,561₹7,180
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,402 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,271 |
| Enterprise value | 8,672 |
| less net debt | (95) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 8,577 |
| ÷ 2.94 crore shares | ₹2,914 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 3,008 | 3,220 | 3,475 | 3,786 | 4,175 |
| 10.50% | 2,784 | 2,960 | 3,169 | 3,419 | 3,725 |
| 11.00% | 2,592 | 2,740 | 2,914 | 3,118 | 3,364 |
| 11.50% | 2,425 | 2,552 | 2,698 | 2,868 | 3,069 |
| 12.00% | 2,280 | 2,389 | 2,513 | 2,656 | 2,823 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹6,250.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,196 · 2,881 · 3,666 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.44 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,428 | 4,726 | 5,583 | 6,274 | 7,058 | 7,940 | 8,932 | 10,049 | 11,305 |
| growth % | 6.8 | (12.9) | 18.1 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 779 | 637 | 913 | 1,037 | 1,165 | 1,310 | 1,474 | 1,658 | 1,865 |
| margin % | 14.3 | 13.5 | 16.4 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| less depreciation | (198) | (243) | (317) | (322) | (360) | (405) | (456) | (512) | (577) |
| EBIT | 581 | 394 | 596 | 715 | 805 | 905 | 1,018 | 1,146 | 1,289 |
| less tax on EBIT | (179) | (201) | (226) | (255) | (286) | (322) | |||
| NOPAT | 536 | 603 | 679 | 764 | 859 | 967 | |||
| add depreciation | 198 | 243 | 317 | 322 | 360 | 405 | 456 | 512 | 577 |
| less capex | (875) | (504) | (270) | (175) | (198) | (288) | (398) | (532) | (692) |
| less working-capital build | — | (154) | (174) | (196) | (220) | (247) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (168) | 164 | 333 | — | 611 | 622 | 625 | 620 | 604 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 580 | 532 | 482 | 430 | 378 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 180, dividends at 10.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 715 | 805 | 905 | 1,018 | 1,146 | 1,289 |
| Interest at 9.2% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 788 | 889 | 1,002 | 1,129 | 1,272 | |
| Profit after tax | 678 | 591 | 666 | 751 | 847 | 954 |
| Dividends | (74) | (64) | (73) | (82) | (92) | (104) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 85 | 620 | 1,156 | 1,687 | 2,203 | 2,690 |
| Working capital | 1,234 | 1,389 | 1,562 | 1,758 | 1,978 | 2,225 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,581 | 6,419 | 6,302 | 6,245 | 6,264 | 6,380 |
| Debt | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 |
| Equity | 6,297 | 6,823 | 7,417 | 8,086 | 8,841 | 9,691 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 796 | 898 | 1,011 | 1,139 | 1,283 | |
| Investing (capex) | (198) | (288) | (398) | (532) | (692) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (64) | (73) | (82) | (92) | (104) | |
| Net change in cash | 534 | 537 | 531 | 515 | 487 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 599 | 609 | 613 | 608 | 591 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 16.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,914 | (53.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.