Models
ATUL AUTO LIMITEDATULAUTOAgricultural Commercial & Construction Vehicles
₹292per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹292implied FY26 P/E 17.2× · EV/EBITDA 11.3×
Against CMP ₹444.60−34.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies33.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹217₹441
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹380₹597
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 231 |
| PV of terminal value | 700 |
| Enterprise value | 931 |
| less net debt | (121) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 810 |
| ÷ 2.78 crore shares | ₹292 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 303 | 328 | 358 | 395 | 441 |
| 10.50% | 276 | 297 | 322 | 352 | 388 |
| 11.00% | 254 | 271 | 292 | 316 | 345 |
| 11.50% | 234 | 249 | 266 | 287 | 310 |
| 12.00% | 217 | 230 | 245 | 261 | 281 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹444.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 222 · 289 · 370 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.31 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 513 | 527 | 723 | 824 | 940 | 1,071 | 1,221 | 1,392 | 1,587 |
| growth % | 62.7 | 2.8 | 37.1 | 14.1 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| EBITDA | 36 | 40 | 52 | 83 | 94 | 107 | 122 | 139 | 159 |
| margin % | 7.1 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| less depreciation | (16) | (18) | (18) | (18) | (21) | (24) | (27) | (31) | (35) |
| EBIT | 21 | 22 | 34 | 64 | 73 | 84 | 95 | 109 | 124 |
| less tax on EBIT | (16) | (18) | (20) | (23) | (26) | (30) | |||
| NOPAT | 49 | 55 | 63 | 72 | 82 | 94 | |||
| add depreciation | 16 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 21 | 24 | 27 | 31 | 35 |
| less capex | (7) | (9) | (17) | (11) | (12) | (18) | (24) | (32) | (42) |
| less working-capital build | — | (11) | (13) | (15) | (17) | (19) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (25) | (9) | 17 | — | 53 | 56 | 60 | 64 | 67 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 50 | 48 | 46 | 44 | 42 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 145, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 64 | 73 | 84 | 95 | 109 | 124 |
| Interest at 7.3% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | 63 | 73 | 85 | 98 | 113 | |
| Profit after tax | 42 | 48 | 55 | 64 | 74 | 86 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 24 | 68 | 116 | 169 | 224 | 284 |
| Working capital | 81 | 93 | 106 | 121 | 138 | 157 |
| Net block and other assets | 664 | 655 | 649 | 647 | 648 | 655 |
| Debt | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 |
| Equity | 490 | 538 | 593 | 657 | 731 | 817 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 57 | 66 | 76 | 88 | 101 | |
| Investing (capex) | (12) | (18) | (24) | (32) | (42) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 45 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 59 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 45 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 59 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14% | 10% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹292 | (34.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.