Models
AUROBINDO PHARMA LTDAUROPHARMAPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹703per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹703implied FY26 P/E 11.0× · EV/EBITDA 6.0×
Against CMP ₹1,679.80−58.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹540₹1,029
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,048₹1,717
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 9,180 |
| PV of terminal value | 31,763 |
| Enterprise value | 40,943 |
| less net debt | (485) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 40,458 |
| ÷ 57.54 crore shares | ₹703 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 727 | 782 | 848 | 929 | 1,029 |
| 10.50% | 669 | 715 | 769 | 834 | 913 |
| 11.00% | 620 | 658 | 703 | 756 | 820 |
| 11.50% | 577 | 610 | 648 | 692 | 744 |
| 12.00% | 540 | 568 | 600 | 637 | 680 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,679.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 533 · 699 · 880 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 24,855 | 29,002 | 31,724 | 33,653 | 35,672 | 37,813 | 40,081 | 42,486 | 45,035 |
| growth % | 6.0 | 16.7 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 3,719 | 5,651 | 6,583 | 6,780 | 7,170 | 7,600 | 8,056 | 8,540 | 9,052 |
| margin % | 15.0 | 19.5 | 20.8 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 |
| less depreciation | (1,245) | (1,522) | (1,649) | (1,778) | (1,891) | (2,004) | (2,124) | (2,252) | (2,387) |
| EBIT | 2,474 | 4,129 | 4,933 | 5,002 | 5,279 | 5,596 | 5,932 | 6,288 | 6,665 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,576) | (1,663) | (1,763) | (1,869) | (1,981) | (2,100) | |||
| NOPAT | 3,427 | 3,616 | 3,833 | 4,063 | 4,307 | 4,566 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,245 | 1,522 | 1,649 | 1,778 | 1,891 | 2,004 | 2,124 | 2,252 | 2,387 |
| less capex | (2,404) | (2,780) | (1,968) | (2,686) | (2,854) | (2,870) | (2,878) | (2,876) | (2,864) |
| less working-capital build | — | (816) | (865) | (917) | (972) | (1,030) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (17) | (346) | 1,957 | — | 1,838 | 2,103 | 2,393 | 2,711 | 3,058 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,744 | 1,798 | 1,844 | 1,882 | 1,912 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 7,676, dividends at 6.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 5,002 | 5,279 | 5,596 | 5,932 | 6,288 | 6,665 |
| Interest at 4.9% on debt | (376) | (376) | (376) | (376) | (376) | |
| Profit before tax | 4,903 | 5,220 | 5,556 | 5,912 | 6,289 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,505 | 3,359 | 3,576 | 3,806 | 4,050 | 4,308 |
| Dividends | (232) | (222) | (236) | (251) | (267) | (284) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7,191 | 8,550 | 10,159 | 12,043 | 14,230 | 16,746 |
| Working capital | 13,581 | 14,397 | 15,262 | 16,178 | 17,150 | 18,180 |
| Net block and other assets | 37,730 | 38,693 | 39,559 | 40,312 | 40,937 | 41,414 |
| Debt | 7,676 | 7,676 | 7,676 | 7,676 | 7,676 | 7,676 |
| Equity | 37,883 | 41,020 | 44,360 | 47,914 | 51,697 | 55,720 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 4,434 | 4,715 | 5,014 | 5,330 | 5,665 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,854) | (2,870) | (2,878) | (2,876) | (2,864) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (222) | (236) | (251) | (267) | (284) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,358 | 1,609 | 1,885 | 2,186 | 2,516 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,580 | 1,845 | 2,136 | 2,453 | 2,801 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 20.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹703 | (58.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.