Models
AUTOMOBILE CORPN OF GOA LACGLAuto Components
₹3,937per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹3,937implied FY26 P/E 34.3× · EV/EBITDA 27.7×
Against CMP ₹1,770.10+122.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies6.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3186%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,991₹5,830
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 328 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,956 |
| Enterprise value | 2,284 |
| less net debt | 113 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,397 |
| ÷ 0.61 crore shares | ₹3,937 |
86% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 4,070 | 4,390 | 4,774 | 5,243 | 5,830 |
| 10.50% | 3,737 | 4,003 | 4,317 | 4,694 | 5,155 |
| 11.00% | 3,452 | 3,676 | 3,937 | 4,246 | 4,616 |
| 11.50% | 3,206 | 3,396 | 3,616 | 3,873 | 4,176 |
| 12.00% | 2,991 | 3,155 | 3,342 | 3,558 | 3,810 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,770.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,903 · 3,910 · 5,235 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.36 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 506 | 584 | 661 | 934 | 1,214 | 1,578 | 2,051 | 2,667 | 3,467 |
| growth % | 79.6 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 41.3 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 34 | 43 | 52 | 82 | 107 | 139 | 181 | 235 | 305 |
| margin % | 6.7 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (16) | (21) |
| EBIT | 29 | 38 | 48 | 77 | 100 | 129 | 168 | 219 | 284 |
| less tax on EBIT | (20) | (26) | (33) | (43) | (56) | (73) | |||
| NOPAT | 57 | 74 | 96 | 125 | 162 | 211 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 21 |
| less capex | (4) | (6) | (16) | (37) | (49) | (50) | (48) | (41) | (25) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (8) | (11) | (14) | (18) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (8) | 54 | (7) | — | 26 | 47 | 78 | 123 | 188 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 25 | 40 | 60 | 85 | 118 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 9, dividends at 21.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 77 | 100 | 129 | 168 | 219 | 284 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 99 | 129 | 167 | 218 | 284 | |
| Profit after tax | 70 | 73 | 95 | 124 | 162 | 210 |
| Dividends | (15) | (16) | (21) | (27) | (35) | (46) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 121 | 131 | 157 | 207 | 294 | 436 |
| Working capital | 21 | 28 | 36 | 47 | 61 | 80 |
| Net block and other assets | 316 | 357 | 398 | 434 | 459 | 463 |
| Debt | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Equity | 309 | 366 | 441 | 538 | 664 | 829 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 74 | 97 | 126 | 164 | 213 | |
| Investing (capex) | (49) | (50) | (48) | (41) | (25) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (16) | (21) | (27) | (35) | (46) | |
| Net change in cash | 10 | 26 | 50 | 87 | 142 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 26 | 46 | 77 | 123 | 188 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 8.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹3,937 | 122.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.