Models
AUTOMOTIVE AXLES LIMITEDAUTOAXLESAuto Components
₹1,349per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,349implied FY26 P/E 11.7× · EV/EBITDA 8.9×
Against CMP ₹1,690.00−20.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,044₹1,956
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,540₹2,115
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 448 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,552 |
| Enterprise value | 2,000 |
| less net debt | 38 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,038 |
| ÷ 1.51 crore shares | ₹1,349 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,393 | 1,495 | 1,618 | 1,768 | 1,956 |
| 10.50% | 1,286 | 1,371 | 1,471 | 1,592 | 1,739 |
| 11.00% | 1,194 | 1,265 | 1,349 | 1,447 | 1,566 |
| 11.50% | 1,114 | 1,175 | 1,245 | 1,327 | 1,424 |
| 12.00% | 1,044 | 1,097 | 1,157 | 1,226 | 1,306 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,690.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,107 · 1,338 · 1,621 |
| Draws below the CMP | 94% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,324 | 2,229 | 2,078 | 2,178 | 2,287 | 2,401 | 2,521 | 2,647 | 2,779 |
| growth % | 55.9 | (4.1) | (6.8) | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 257 | 246 | 220 | 225 | 236 | 247 | 260 | 273 | 286 |
| margin % | 11.1 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| less depreciation | (41) | (36) | (34) | (36) | (37) | (38) | (40) | (42) | (44) |
| EBIT | 216 | 210 | 186 | 189 | 199 | 209 | 219 | 230 | 242 |
| less tax on EBIT | (48) | (50) | (53) | (55) | (58) | (61) | |||
| NOPAT | 142 | 149 | 156 | 164 | 172 | 181 | |||
| add depreciation | 41 | 36 | 34 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 44 |
| less capex | (16) | (19) | (0) | (73) | (78) | (73) | (67) | (61) | (53) |
| less working-capital build | — | (19) | (19) | (20) | (21) | (22) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 36 | 241 | 128 | — | 89 | 102 | 117 | 133 | 149 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 85 | 88 | 90 | 92 | 93 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 28% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 189 | 199 | 209 | 219 | 230 | 242 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 199 | 209 | 219 | 230 | 242 | |
| Profit after tax | 164 | 149 | 156 | 164 | 172 | 181 |
| Dividends | (46) | (42) | (44) | (46) | (48) | (51) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 38 | 86 | 144 | 215 | 300 | 399 |
| Working capital | 371 | 390 | 409 | 429 | 451 | 473 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,111 | 1,152 | 1,187 | 1,213 | 1,232 | 1,240 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,099 | 1,206 | 1,318 | 1,437 | 1,561 | 1,691 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 167 | 175 | 184 | 193 | 203 | |
| Investing (capex) | (78) | (73) | (67) | (61) | (53) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (42) | (44) | (46) | (48) | (51) | |
| Net change in cash | 47 | 59 | 71 | 84 | 99 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 89 | 102 | 117 | 133 | 149 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 10.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,349 | (20.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.