Models
AUTOMOTIVE STAMPINGS & ASASALAuto Components
₹529per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹529implied FY26 P/E 28.2× · EV/EBITDA 15.5×
Against CMP ₹461.00+14.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies10.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹406₹776
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹375₹655
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 232 |
| PV of terminal value | 659 |
| Enterprise value | 891 |
| less net debt | (51) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 840 |
| ÷ 1.59 crore shares | ₹529 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 548 | 589 | 639 | 700 | 776 |
| 10.50% | 504 | 539 | 579 | 628 | 688 |
| 11.00% | 467 | 496 | 529 | 569 | 617 |
| 11.50% | 434 | 459 | 487 | 521 | 560 |
| 12.00% | 406 | 427 | 451 | 479 | 512 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹461.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 402 · 524 · 674 |
| Draws below the CMP | 27% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.40 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 828 | 880 | 775 | 891 | 1,024 | 1,178 | 1,354 | 1,558 | 1,791 |
| growth % | 36.3 | 6.3 | (11.9) | 14.9 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| EBITDA | 33 | 51 | 48 | 57 | 66 | 75 | 87 | 100 | 115 |
| margin % | 3.9 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| less depreciation | (14) | (16) | (20) | (20) | (23) | (26) | (30) | (34) | (39) |
| EBIT | 19 | 34 | 29 | 38 | 43 | 49 | 57 | 65 | 75 |
| less tax on EBIT | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |||
| NOPAT | 41 | 47 | 54 | 63 | 72 | 83 | |||
| add depreciation | 14 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 34 | 39 |
| less capex | (15) | (13) | (17) | (7) | (8) | (15) | (23) | (34) | (47) |
| less working-capital build | — | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 10 | 18 | (23) | — | 55 | 58 | 60 | 62 | 63 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 52 | 50 | 47 | 43 | 40 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 70, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 38 | 43 | 49 | 57 | 65 | 75 |
| Interest at 17.7% on debt | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | |
| Profit before tax | 31 | 37 | 44 | 53 | 63 | |
| Profit after tax | 28 | 34 | 41 | 49 | 58 | 69 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 19 | 60 | 105 | 152 | 200 | 250 |
| Working capital | 43 | 50 | 58 | 66 | 76 | 88 |
| Net block and other assets | 273 | 259 | 247 | 241 | 241 | 249 |
| Debt | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 |
| Equity | 36 | 70 | 111 | 160 | 218 | 287 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 50 | 59 | 70 | 83 | 97 | |
| Investing (capex) | (8) | (15) | (23) | (34) | (47) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 41 | 44 | 47 | 49 | 50 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 41 | 44 | 47 | 49 | 50 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15% | 6.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹529 | 14.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.