Models
AVANTEL LIMITEDAVANTELAerospace & Defense
₹3per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹3implied FY26 P/E 5.2× · EV/EBITDA 2.4×
Against CMP ₹156.65−97.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31151%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1₹7
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹117₹215
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (59) |
| PV of terminal value | 173 |
| Enterprise value | 115 |
| less net debt | (29) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 86 |
| ÷ 26.57 crore shares | ₹3 |
151% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 10.50% | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 11.00% | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 11.50% | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 12.00% | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹156.65; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2 · 3 · 5 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 154 | 224 | 249 | 223 | 212 | 201 | 191 | 182 | 172 |
| growth % | 47.2 | 45.3 | 11.0 | (10.5) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 47 | 82 | 93 | 48 | 46 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 37 |
| margin % | 30.3 | 36.5 | 37.1 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (7) | (12) | (20) | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (16) |
| EBIT | 41 | 74 | 81 | 28 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (10) | (10) | (9) | (9) | (8) | |||
| NOPAT | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | |||
| add depreciation | 6 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| less capex | (10) | (22) | (78) | (91) | (87) | (67) | (49) | (33) | (19) |
| less working-capital build | — | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (9) | 43 | (28) | — | (43) | (26) | (10) | 4 | 17 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (41) | (22) | (8) | 3 | 10 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 34, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 28 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 24 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| Dividends | (5) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | (39) | (67) | (79) | (77) | (62) |
| Working capital | 163 | 155 | 147 | 140 | 133 | 126 |
| Net block and other assets | 241 | 309 | 358 | 390 | 407 | 410 |
| Debt | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 |
| Equity | 338 | 353 | 366 | 379 | 391 | 403 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 42 | 39 | 37 | 35 | 34 | |
| Investing (capex) | (87) | (67) | (49) | (33) | (19) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (45) | (28) | (12) | 2 | 15 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (45) | (28) | (12) | 2 | 15 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 21.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹3 | (97.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.