Models
AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITEDDMARTRetailing
₹759per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹759implied FY26 P/E 16.2× · EV/EBITDA 10.0×
Against CMP ₹3,688.00−79.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3191%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹547₹1,183
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,529₹4,818
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 4,654 |
| PV of terminal value | 46,988 |
| Enterprise value | 51,642 |
| less net debt | (2,141) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 49,501 |
| ÷ 65.23 crore shares | ₹759 |
91% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 788 | 860 | 946 | 1,051 | 1,183 |
| 10.50% | 714 | 773 | 844 | 928 | 1,032 |
| 11.00% | 650 | 700 | 759 | 828 | 911 |
| 11.50% | 595 | 638 | 687 | 745 | 813 |
| 12.00% | 547 | 584 | 626 | 675 | 731 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,688.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 563 · 749 · 979 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.33 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 42,840 | 50,789 | 59,358 | 68,821 | 79,832 | 92,605 | 1,07,422 | 1,24,610 | 1,44,547 |
| growth % | 38.3 | 18.6 | 16.9 | 15.9 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 3,637 | 4,104 | 4,487 | 5,187 | 5,987 | 6,945 | 8,057 | 9,346 | 10,841 |
| margin % | 8.5 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| less depreciation | (639) | (731) | (870) | (1,037) | (1,197) | (1,389) | (1,611) | (1,869) | (2,168) |
| EBIT | 2,998 | 3,373 | 3,618 | 4,150 | 4,790 | 5,556 | 6,445 | 7,477 | 8,673 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,129) | (1,303) | (1,511) | (1,753) | (2,034) | (2,359) | |||
| NOPAT | 3,021 | 3,487 | 4,045 | 4,692 | 5,443 | 6,314 | |||
| add depreciation | 639 | 731 | 870 | 1,037 | 1,197 | 1,389 | 1,611 | 1,869 | 2,168 |
| less capex | (2,212) | (2,731) | (3,423) | (4,113) | (4,790) | (4,584) | (4,189) | (3,551) | (2,602) |
| less working-capital build | — | (749) | (869) | (1,008) | (1,169) | (1,356) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 418 | 15 | (960) | — | (854) | (18) | 1,107 | 2,592 | 4,524 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (811) | (16) | 852 | 1,799 | 2,829 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,425, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 4,150 | 4,790 | 5,556 | 6,445 | 7,477 | 8,673 |
| Interest at 8.8% on debt | (213) | (213) | (213) | (213) | (213) | |
| Profit before tax | 4,577 | 5,343 | 6,232 | 7,263 | 8,459 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,970 | 3,332 | 3,890 | 4,537 | 5,288 | 6,158 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 284 | (726) | (900) | 52 | 2,488 | 6,857 |
| Working capital | 4,714 | 5,463 | 6,331 | 7,339 | 8,507 | 9,863 |
| Net block and other assets | 24,527 | 28,119 | 31,314 | 33,892 | 35,574 | 36,008 |
| Debt | 2,425 | 2,425 | 2,425 | 2,425 | 2,425 | 2,425 |
| Equity | 24,462 | 27,794 | 31,684 | 36,221 | 41,508 | 47,667 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3,780 | 4,410 | 5,141 | 5,988 | 6,971 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4,790) | (4,584) | (4,189) | (3,551) | (2,602) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (1,010) | (174) | 951 | 2,437 | 4,369 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (1,010) | (174) | 951 | 2,437 | 4,369 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 7.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹759 | (79.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.