₹562per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹562implied FY26 P/E 47.4× · EV/EBITDA 7.3×
Against CMP ₹293.70+91.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies4.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3164%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹455₹775
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹229₹639
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,455 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,562 |
| Enterprise value | 4,017 |
| less net debt | 6 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,023 |
| ÷ 7.16 crore shares | ₹562 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 579 | 615 | 658 | 710 | 775 |
| 10.50% | 541 | 570 | 606 | 648 | 699 |
| 11.00% | 508 | 533 | 562 | 597 | 638 |
| 11.50% | 480 | 501 | 525 | 554 | 588 |
| 12.00% | 455 | 473 | 494 | 518 | 546 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹293.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 267 · 548 · 881 |
| Draws below the CMP | 13% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.31 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 849 | 1,208 | 1,493 | 1,844 | 2,278 | 2,813 | 3,474 | 4,291 |
| growth % | — | 42.3 | 23.7 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| EBITDA | 245 | 427 | 550 | 679 | 838 | 1,035 | 1,279 | 1,579 |
| margin % | 28.9 | 35.4 | 36.8 | 36.8 | 36.8 | 36.8 | 36.8 | 36.8 |
| less depreciation | (196) | (276) | (384) | (474) | (585) | (723) | (893) | (1,103) |
| EBIT | 49 | 152 | 166 | 205 | 253 | 312 | 386 | 476 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) | ||
| NOPAT | 163 | 201 | 248 | 306 | 378 | 467 | ||
| add depreciation | 196 | 276 | 384 | 474 | 585 | 723 | 893 | 1,103 |
| less capex | (144) | (199) | (208) | (258) | (415) | (631) | (925) | (1,323) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 84 | 164 | — | 417 | 419 | 399 | 346 | 247 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 395 | 358 | 307 | 240 | 154 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 51, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 166 | 205 | 253 | 312 | 386 | 476 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 201 | 249 | 308 | 382 | 472 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 197 | 244 | 302 | 374 | 463 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 56 | 469 | 884 | 1,278 | 1,620 | 1,863 |
| Working capital | (96) | (96) | (96) | (96) | (96) | (96) |
| Net block and other assets | 2,950 | 2,734 | 2,563 | 2,471 | 2,503 | 2,724 |
| Debt | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| Equity | 552 | 749 | 993 | 1,296 | 1,670 | 2,133 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 671 | 829 | 1,025 | 1,267 | 1,566 | |
| Investing (capex) | (258) | (415) | (631) | (925) | (1,323) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 413 | 415 | 395 | 342 | 243 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 413 | 415 | 395 | 342 | 243 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 23.5% | 36.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹562 | 91.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.