Models
AXISCADES TECH LTDAXISCADESAerospace & Defense
₹63per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹63implied FY26 P/E 7.3× · EV/EBITDA 3.2×
Against CMP ₹1,830.00−96.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31109%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹23₹142
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,063₹2,211
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (49) |
| PV of terminal value | 575 |
| Enterprise value | 525 |
| less net debt | (259) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 266 |
| ÷ 4.26 crore shares | ₹63 |
109% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 68 | 81 | 97 | 117 | 142 |
| 10.50% | 54 | 65 | 78 | 94 | 114 |
| 11.00% | 42 | 52 | 63 | 76 | 91 |
| 11.50% | 32 | 40 | 49 | 60 | 73 |
| 12.00% | 23 | 30 | 38 | 47 | 58 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,830.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (11) · 61 · 130 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.27 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 822 | 952 | 1,031 | 1,159 | 1,304 | 1,467 | 1,650 | 1,856 | 2,088 |
| growth % | 34.6 | 15.9 | 8.2 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 78 | 130 | 139 | 166 | 188 | 211 | 238 | 267 | 301 |
| margin % | 9.4 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 |
| less depreciation | (27) | (34) | (40) | (44) | (50) | (56) | (63) | (71) | (79) |
| EBIT | 51 | 97 | 99 | 122 | 138 | 155 | 175 | 197 | 221 |
| less tax on EBIT | (45) | (50) | (57) | (64) | (72) | (81) | |||
| NOPAT | 77 | 88 | 99 | 111 | 125 | 141 | |||
| add depreciation | 27 | 34 | 40 | 44 | 50 | 56 | 63 | 71 | 79 |
| less capex | (11) | (20) | (38) | (133) | (150) | (143) | (133) | (117) | (95) |
| less working-capital build | — | (43) | (49) | (55) | (62) | (69) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 60 | 59 | 50 | — | (56) | (37) | (14) | 17 | 55 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (53) | (32) | (10) | 12 | 35 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 276, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 122 | 138 | 155 | 175 | 197 | 221 |
| Interest at 13.3% on debt | (37) | (37) | (37) | (37) | (37) | |
| Profit before tax | 101 | 119 | 138 | 160 | 185 | |
| Profit after tax | 72 | 64 | 75 | 88 | 102 | 117 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 18 | (61) | (122) | (159) | (166) | (134) |
| Working capital | 347 | 390 | 439 | 494 | 556 | 625 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,101 | 1,202 | 1,289 | 1,359 | 1,405 | 1,421 |
| Debt | 276 | 276 | 276 | 276 | 276 | 276 |
| Equity | 734 | 799 | 874 | 962 | 1,064 | 1,181 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 71 | 82 | 96 | 110 | 127 | |
| Investing (capex) | (150) | (143) | (133) | (117) | (95) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (79) | (61) | (37) | (6) | 32 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (79) | (61) | (37) | (6) | 32 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 14.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹63 | (96.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.