Models
AXTEL INDUSTRIES LTD.AXTELIndustrial Manufacturing
₹419per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹419implied FY26 P/E 21.7× · EV/EBITDA 16.2×
Against CMP ₹440.00−4.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies28.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹320₹616
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 122 |
| PV of terminal value | 538 |
| Enterprise value | 661 |
| less net debt | 16 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 677 |
| ÷ 1.62 crore shares | ₹419 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 433 | 466 | 506 | 555 | 616 |
| 10.50% | 398 | 426 | 458 | 498 | 545 |
| 11.00% | 369 | 392 | 419 | 451 | 489 |
| 11.50% | 343 | 363 | 385 | 412 | 444 |
| 12.00% | 320 | 337 | 357 | 379 | 405 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹440.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 322 · 412 · 529 |
| Draws below the CMP | 63% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.44 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 180 | 223 | 179 | 224 | 281 | 352 | 442 | 555 | 697 |
| growth % | 25.1 | 24.0 | (20.0) | 25.3 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 |
| EBITDA | 23 | 44 | 24 | 41 | 51 | 64 | 81 | 101 | 127 |
| margin % | 12.6 | 19.7 | 13.3 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (10) | (12) | (15) |
| EBIT | 20 | 41 | 20 | 36 | 45 | 56 | 71 | 89 | 111 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (11) | (14) | (17) | (22) | (28) | |||
| NOPAT | 27 | 34 | 42 | 53 | 67 | 84 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| less capex | (5) | (11) | (7) | (8) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (18) |
| less working-capital build | — | (12) | (15) | (18) | (23) | (29) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 25 | 28 | 24 | — | 18 | 24 | 31 | 40 | 52 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 18 | 20 | 24 | 28 | 32 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 93.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 36 | 45 | 56 | 71 | 89 | 111 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 45 | 56 | 71 | 89 | 111 | |
| Profit after tax | 31 | 34 | 42 | 53 | 67 | 84 |
| Dividends | (29) | (32) | (40) | (50) | (62) | (78) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 16 | 3 | (12) | (31) | (53) | (80) |
| Working capital | 46 | 57 | 72 | 91 | 114 | 143 |
| Net block and other assets | 153 | 157 | 161 | 165 | 168 | 171 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 125 | 127 | 130 | 133 | 138 | 143 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 28 | 36 | 45 | 56 | 70 | |
| Investing (capex) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (18) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (32) | (40) | (50) | (62) | (78) | |
| Net change in cash | (13) | (16) | (19) | (22) | (26) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 18 | 24 | 31 | 40 | 52 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 25.5% | 18.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹419 | (4.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.