Models
B&A PACKAGING INDIA LIMITEDBSE 523186Industrial Products
₹3per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹3implied FY26 P/E 0.2× · EV/EBITDA 1.5×
Against CMP ₹200.00−98.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31218%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(19)₹47
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹141₹254
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (21) |
| PV of terminal value | 38 |
| Enterprise value | 17 |
| less net debt | (16) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1 |
| ÷ 0.50 crore shares | ₹3 |
218% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 5 | 13 | 22 | 33 | 47 |
| 10.50% | (2) | 4 | 12 | 21 | 31 |
| 11.00% | (9) | (3) | 3 | 10 | 19 |
| 11.50% | (14) | (10) | (4) | 2 | 9 |
| 12.00% | (19) | (15) | (11) | (5) | 1 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹200.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (50) · 2 · 50 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.66 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 132 | 129 | 131 | 142 | 154 | 167 | 182 | 197 | 214 |
| growth % | 2.8 | (2.1) | 1.7 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| EBITDA | 16 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 18 |
| margin % | 12.1 | 12.5 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| EBIT | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |||
| NOPAT | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| less capex | (6) | (3) | (7) | (16) | (17) | (14) | (12) | (8) | (4) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | 19 | 1 | — | (11) | (9) | (5) | (1) | 4 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (11) | (7) | (4) | (1) | 2 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 19, dividends at 7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| Interest at 6.7% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |
| Profit after tax | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Dividends | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | (10) | (20) | (26) | (29) | (27) |
| Working capital | 53 | 57 | 62 | 68 | 73 | 80 |
| Net block and other assets | 77 | 92 | 104 | 112 | 118 | 118 |
| Debt | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Equity | 89 | 96 | 102 | 110 | 118 | 127 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Investing (capex) | (17) | (14) | (12) | (8) | (4) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | (13) | (10) | (7) | (3) | 2 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (12) | (9) | (6) | (2) | 3 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8.5% | 8.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹3 | (98.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.