Models
BAJAJ AUTO LIMITEDBAJAJ-AUTOAutomobiles
₹11,266per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹11,266implied FY26 P/E 26.8× · EV/EBITDA 25.6×
Against CMP ₹11,678.00−3.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies24.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹8,436₹16,917
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹8,492₹12,470
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 66,400 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,67,463 |
| Enterprise value | 3,33,863 |
| less net debt | (18,991) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,14,872 |
| ÷ 27.95 crore shares | ₹11,266 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 11,672 | 12,626 | 13,770 | 15,168 | 16,917 |
| 10.50% | 10,674 | 11,467 | 12,403 | 13,527 | 14,900 |
| 11.00% | 9,820 | 10,487 | 11,266 | 12,185 | 13,289 |
| 11.50% | 9,082 | 9,649 | 10,305 | 11,069 | 11,972 |
| 12.00% | 8,436 | 8,924 | 9,482 | 10,126 | 10,876 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹11,678.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 8,386 · 11,196 · 14,811 |
| Draws below the CMP | 57% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.36 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 36,455 | 44,870 | 50,995 | 62,905 | 77,688 | 95,944 | 1,18,491 | 1,46,337 | 1,80,726 |
| growth % | 10.0 | 23.1 | 13.6 | 23.4 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| EBITDA | 6,451 | 8,762 | 10,468 | 13,022 | 16,081 | 19,860 | 24,528 | 30,292 | 37,410 |
| margin % | 17.7 | 19.5 | 20.5 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 |
| less depreciation | (286) | (365) | (414) | (645) | (777) | (959) | (1,185) | (1,463) | (1,807) |
| EBIT | 6,165 | 8,397 | 10,054 | 12,377 | 15,304 | 18,901 | 23,343 | 28,828 | 35,603 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3,119) | (3,857) | (4,763) | (5,882) | (7,265) | (8,972) | |||
| NOPAT | 9,258 | 11,448 | 14,138 | 17,460 | 21,564 | 26,631 | |||
| add depreciation | 286 | 365 | 414 | 645 | 777 | 959 | 1,185 | 1,463 | 1,807 |
| less capex | (1,074) | (706) | (814) | (560) | (699) | (935) | (1,244) | (1,646) | (2,169) |
| less working-capital build | — | (222) | (274) | (338) | (418) | (516) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 4,203 | 5,852 | (2,219) | — | 11,304 | 13,888 | 17,063 | 20,963 | 25,754 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 10,729 | 11,876 | 13,145 | 14,549 | 16,102 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 21,981, dividends at 54.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 12,377 | 15,304 | 18,901 | 23,343 | 28,828 | 35,603 |
| Interest at 7.5% on debt | (1,649) | (1,649) | (1,649) | (1,649) | (1,649) | |
| Profit before tax | 13,656 | 17,252 | 21,694 | 27,180 | 33,954 | |
| Profit after tax | 10,744 | 10,215 | 12,905 | 16,227 | 20,330 | 25,398 |
| Dividends | (5,855) | (5,567) | (7,033) | (8,844) | (11,080) | (13,842) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2,990 | 7,494 | 13,115 | 20,101 | 28,751 | 39,430 |
| Working capital | 965 | 1,187 | 1,461 | 1,799 | 2,217 | 2,732 |
| Net block and other assets | 73,268 | 73,190 | 73,166 | 73,225 | 73,408 | 73,770 |
| Debt | 21,981 | 21,981 | 21,981 | 21,981 | 21,981 | 21,981 |
| Equity | 40,220 | 44,868 | 50,740 | 58,123 | 67,374 | 78,930 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 10,770 | 13,590 | 17,074 | 21,376 | 26,689 | |
| Investing (capex) | (699) | (935) | (1,244) | (1,646) | (2,169) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (5,567) | (7,033) | (8,844) | (11,080) | (13,842) | |
| Net change in cash | 4,504 | 5,622 | 6,986 | 8,650 | 10,679 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 10,071 | 12,655 | 15,830 | 19,730 | 24,521 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 23.5% | 20.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹11,266 | (3.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.