Models
BAJAJ CONSUMER CARE LTDBAJAJCONPersonal Products
₹378per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹378implied FY26 P/E 22.6× · EV/EBITDA 22.2×
Against CMP ₹522.50−27.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies30.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹289₹557
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹221₹692
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 970 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,947 |
| Enterprise value | 4,917 |
| less net debt | 22 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,939 |
| ÷ 13.06 crore shares | ₹378 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 391 | 421 | 457 | 501 | 557 |
| 10.50% | 359 | 384 | 414 | 450 | 493 |
| 11.00% | 332 | 354 | 378 | 407 | 442 |
| 11.50% | 309 | 327 | 348 | 372 | 400 |
| 12.00% | 289 | 304 | 322 | 342 | 366 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹522.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 295 · 376 · 478 |
| Draws below the CMP | 96% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.46 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 961 | 984 | 965 | 1,165 | 1,403 | 1,691 | 2,038 | 2,456 | 2,959 |
| growth % | 9.2 | 2.4 | (2.0) | 20.7 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 |
| EBITDA | 141 | 155 | 128 | 221 | 267 | 321 | 387 | 467 | 562 |
| margin % | 14.7 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (10) | (10) | (15) | (18) | (22) | (26) | (32) | (38) |
| EBIT | 133 | 145 | 118 | 206 | 248 | 299 | 361 | 435 | 524 |
| less tax on EBIT | (37) | (44) | (53) | (64) | (77) | (93) | |||
| NOPAT | 169 | 204 | 246 | 297 | 357 | 431 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 22 | 26 | 32 | 38 |
| less capex | (6) | (4) | (5) | (33) | (39) | (42) | (44) | (46) | (46) |
| less working-capital build | — | (20) | (24) | (29) | (36) | (43) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 95 | 112 | 60 | — | 163 | 201 | 249 | 308 | 380 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 155 | 172 | 192 | 214 | 238 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 206 | 248 | 299 | 361 | 435 | 524 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 248 | 299 | 361 | 435 | 524 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 204 | 246 | 297 | 357 | 431 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 22 | 185 | 386 | 635 | 943 | 1,323 |
| Working capital | 99 | 120 | 144 | 173 | 209 | 252 |
| Net block and other assets | 824 | 845 | 865 | 883 | 897 | 905 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 755 | 959 | 1,205 | 1,502 | 1,859 | 2,290 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 202 | 244 | 294 | 354 | 426 | |
| Investing (capex) | (39) | (42) | (44) | (46) | (46) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 163 | 201 | 249 | 308 | 380 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 163 | 201 | 249 | 308 | 380 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 20.5% | 19% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹378 | (27.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.