Models
BAJAJ STEEL INDS. LTD.BAJAJSTIndustrial Manufacturing
₹157per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹157implied FY26 P/E 8.7× · EV/EBITDA 5.4×
Against CMP ₹368.80−57.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3188%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹116₹238
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹343₹508
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 39 |
| PV of terminal value | 286 |
| Enterprise value | 325 |
| less net debt | 1 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 326 |
| ÷ 2.08 crore shares | ₹157 |
88% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 163 | 176 | 193 | 213 | 238 |
| 10.50% | 148 | 160 | 173 | 189 | 209 |
| 11.00% | 136 | 146 | 157 | 170 | 186 |
| 11.50% | 126 | 134 | 143 | 154 | 167 |
| 12.00% | 116 | 123 | 131 | 141 | 151 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹368.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 127 · 157 · 193 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 533 | 551 | 585 | 524 | 498 | 473 | 449 | 427 | 406 |
| growth % | 21.5 | 3.3 | 6.1 | (10.4) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 96 | 81 | 119 | 60 | 57 | 54 | 52 | 49 | 47 |
| margin % | 18.0 | 14.6 | 20.3 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| less depreciation | (10) | (12) | (15) | (18) | (16) | (16) | (15) | (14) | (13) |
| EBIT | 86 | 69 | 104 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 37 | 35 | 33 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (9) | (9) | |||
| NOPAT | 32 | 30 | 29 | 27 | 26 | 25 | |||
| add depreciation | 10 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| less capex | (45) | (73) | (57) | (63) | (59) | (47) | (36) | (25) | (16) |
| less working-capital build | — | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (18) | (17) | (5) | — | (6) | 4 | 13 | 21 | 28 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (5) | 3 | 10 | 14 | 17 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 56, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 43 | 41 | 39 | 37 | 35 | 33 |
| Interest at 8.7% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 36 | 34 | 32 | 30 | 28 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 22 | 21 |
| Dividends | (2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 57 | 48 | 48 | 57 | 74 | 98 |
| Working capital | 139 | 132 | 126 | 120 | 114 | 108 |
| Net block and other assets | 503 | 546 | 577 | 598 | 609 | 612 |
| Debt | 56 | 56 | 56 | 56 | 56 | 56 |
| Equity | 424 | 450 | 476 | 499 | 521 | 542 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 50 | 47 | 45 | 42 | 40 | |
| Investing (capex) | (59) | (47) | (36) | (25) | (16) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (9) | 0 | 9 | 17 | 24 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (9) | 0 | 9 | 17 | 24 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 11.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹157 | (57.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.