Models
BALKRISHNA IND. LTDBALKRISINDAuto Components
₹336per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹336implied FY26 P/E 4.6× · EV/EBITDA 4.6×
Against CMP ₹2,164.00−84.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31108%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹165₹680
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,970₹2,775
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (792) |
| PV of terminal value | 11,333 |
| Enterprise value | 10,540 |
| less net debt | (4,045) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,495 |
| ÷ 19.33 crore shares | ₹336 |
108% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 359 | 417 | 487 | 573 | 680 |
| 10.50% | 299 | 347 | 405 | 473 | 558 |
| 11.00% | 247 | 288 | 336 | 392 | 460 |
| 11.50% | 203 | 238 | 278 | 325 | 380 |
| 12.00% | 165 | 195 | 229 | 269 | 315 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,164.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 166 · 332 · 518 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,760 | 9,369 | 10,447 | 10,823 | 11,202 | 11,594 | 12,000 | 12,420 | 12,854 |
| growth % | 17.7 | (4.0) | 11.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,707 | 2,255 | 2,458 | 2,300 | 2,386 | 2,470 | 2,556 | 2,645 | 2,738 |
| margin % | 17.5 | 24.1 | 23.5 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
| less depreciation | (571) | (651) | (681) | (775) | (807) | (835) | (864) | (894) | (926) |
| EBIT | 1,136 | 1,605 | 1,777 | 1,525 | 1,579 | 1,635 | 1,692 | 1,751 | 1,812 |
| less tax on EBIT | (372) | (385) | (399) | (413) | (427) | (442) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,153 | 1,194 | 1,236 | 1,279 | 1,324 | 1,370 | |||
| add depreciation | 571 | 651 | 681 | 775 | 807 | 835 | 864 | 894 | 926 |
| less capex | (1,762) | (1,099) | (1,483) | (3,003) | (3,103) | (2,659) | (2,180) | (1,665) | (1,111) |
| less working-capital build | — | (82) | (85) | (88) | (91) | (94) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (315) | 984 | 281 | — | (1,184) | (673) | (125) | 463 | 1,091 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (1,124) | (576) | (96) | 321 | 682 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,106, dividends at 35.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,525 | 1,579 | 1,635 | 1,692 | 1,751 | 1,812 |
| Interest at 3.6% on debt | (148) | (148) | (148) | (148) | (148) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,432 | 1,487 | 1,544 | 1,603 | 1,665 | |
| Profit after tax | 877 | 1,082 | 1,124 | 1,167 | 1,212 | 1,258 |
| Dividends | (309) | (382) | (397) | (412) | (428) | (444) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 61 | (1,617) | (2,799) | (3,447) | (3,525) | (2,989) |
| Working capital | 2,343 | 2,424 | 2,509 | 2,597 | 2,687 | 2,781 |
| Net block and other assets | 15,363 | 17,659 | 19,484 | 20,800 | 21,571 | 21,756 |
| Debt | 4,106 | 4,106 | 4,106 | 4,106 | 4,106 | 4,106 |
| Equity | 10,955 | 11,656 | 12,383 | 13,138 | 13,922 | 14,737 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,807 | 1,874 | 1,944 | 2,016 | 2,090 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3,103) | (2,659) | (2,180) | (1,665) | (1,111) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (382) | (397) | (412) | (428) | (444) | |
| Net change in cash | (1,678) | (1,182) | (649) | (77) | 535 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (1,296) | (785) | (237) | 351 | 979 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3.5% | 21.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹336 | (84.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.