Models
BALMER LAWRIE & CO LTDBALMLAWRIEDiversified
₹180per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹180implied FY26 P/E 11.0× · EV/EBITDA 8.9×
Against CMP ₹168.60+6.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies5.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹140₹260
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹148₹238
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 807 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,310 |
| Enterprise value | 3,117 |
| less net debt | (41) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,076 |
| ÷ 17.10 crore shares | ₹180 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 186 | 199 | 215 | 235 | 260 |
| 10.50% | 172 | 183 | 196 | 212 | 231 |
| 11.00% | 160 | 169 | 180 | 193 | 208 |
| 11.50% | 149 | 157 | 166 | 177 | 190 |
| 12.00% | 140 | 147 | 155 | 164 | 174 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹168.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 145 · 178 · 219 |
| Draws below the CMP | 36% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.18 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,321 | 2,339 | 2,516 | 2,717 | 2,934 | 3,169 | 3,423 | 3,696 | 3,992 |
| growth % | 12.9 | 0.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 202 | 305 | 313 | 351 | 379 | 409 | 442 | 477 | 515 |
| margin % | 8.7 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| less depreciation | (57) | (59) | (60) | (76) | (82) | (89) | (96) | (104) | (112) |
| EBIT | 146 | 246 | 252 | 275 | 296 | 320 | 346 | 373 | 403 |
| less tax on EBIT | (81) | (88) | (95) | (102) | (111) | (119) | |||
| NOPAT | 193 | 209 | 225 | 243 | 263 | 284 | |||
| add depreciation | 57 | 59 | 60 | 76 | 82 | 89 | 96 | 104 | 112 |
| less capex | (52) | (53) | (68) | (64) | (67) | (81) | (97) | (114) | (134) |
| less working-capital build | — | (29) | (31) | (33) | (36) | (39) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 155 | 222 | 88 | — | 195 | 202 | 209 | 216 | 222 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 185 | 173 | 161 | 150 | 139 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 75, dividends at 76.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 275 | 296 | 320 | 346 | 373 | 403 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 290 | 314 | 340 | 367 | 397 | |
| Profit after tax | 277 | 204 | 221 | 239 | 259 | 280 |
| Dividends | (211) | (156) | (168) | (182) | (197) | (213) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 34 | 68 | 97 | 120 | 134 | 140 |
| Working capital | 358 | 387 | 418 | 451 | 487 | 526 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,958 | 2,943 | 2,935 | 2,936 | 2,947 | 2,970 |
| Debt | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 |
| Equity | 2,083 | 2,132 | 2,184 | 2,241 | 2,303 | 2,369 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 258 | 279 | 302 | 326 | 352 | |
| Investing (capex) | (67) | (81) | (97) | (114) | (134) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (156) | (168) | (182) | (197) | (213) | |
| Net change in cash | 35 | 29 | 22 | 15 | 5 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 190 | 198 | 205 | 212 | 218 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 12.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹180 | 6.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.