Models
BALU FORGE INDUSTRIES LTDBALUFORGEIndustrial Products
₹370per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹370implied FY26 P/E 15.2× · EV/EBITDA 15.2×
Against CMP ₹532.50−30.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3190%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹272₹568
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹341₹697
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 455 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,083 |
| Enterprise value | 4,538 |
| less net debt | (41) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,497 |
| ÷ 12.14 crore shares | ₹370 |
90% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 384 | 418 | 458 | 507 | 568 |
| 10.50% | 349 | 377 | 410 | 450 | 498 |
| 11.00% | 320 | 343 | 370 | 403 | 442 |
| 11.50% | 294 | 314 | 337 | 364 | 396 |
| 12.00% | 272 | 289 | 308 | 331 | 357 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹532.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 284 · 365 · 465 |
| Draws below the CMP | 98% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.29 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 327 | 560 | 924 | 1,107 | 1,329 | 1,595 | 1,914 | 2,296 | 2,755 |
| growth % | 14.2 | 71.4 | 65.0 | 19.9 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| EBITDA | 50 | 119 | 251 | 300 | 359 | 431 | 517 | 620 | 744 |
| margin % | 15.2 | 21.3 | 27.2 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (2) | (3) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (17) | (21) | (25) |
| EBIT | 48 | 117 | 248 | 290 | 347 | 416 | 499 | 599 | 719 |
| less tax on EBIT | (45) | (53) | (64) | (77) | (92) | (111) | |||
| NOPAT | 245 | 293 | 352 | 423 | 507 | 608 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 25 |
| less capex | (7) | (148) | (416) | (207) | (248) | (228) | (189) | (126) | (30) |
| less working-capital build | — | (101) | (122) | (146) | (175) | (210) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | (166) | (268) | — | (45) | 17 | 104 | 226 | 393 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (42) | 14 | 80 | 157 | 246 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 127, dividends at 0.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 290 | 347 | 416 | 499 | 599 | 719 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Profit before tax | 337 | 406 | 489 | 589 | 709 | |
| Profit after tax | 259 | 285 | 344 | 414 | 498 | 600 |
| Dividends | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 86 | 31 | 37 | 130 | 345 | 726 |
| Working capital | 507 | 609 | 730 | 876 | 1,052 | 1,262 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,258 | 1,494 | 1,708 | 1,880 | 1,985 | 1,990 |
| Debt | 127 | 127 | 127 | 127 | 127 | 127 |
| Equity | 1,595 | 1,878 | 2,219 | 2,631 | 3,126 | 3,722 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 195 | 236 | 285 | 344 | 414 | |
| Investing (capex) | (248) | (228) | (189) | (126) | (30) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | (55) | 6 | 93 | 215 | 381 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (53) | 8 | 96 | 218 | 385 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 20% | 27% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹370 | (30.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.