Models
BANCO PRODUCTS (I) LTDBANCOINDIAAuto Components
₹219per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹219implied FY26 P/E 6.3× · EV/EBITDA 5.0×
Against CMP ₹613.50−64.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹162₹333
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹502₹880
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 772 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,756 |
| Enterprise value | 3,528 |
| less net debt | (397) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,131 |
| ÷ 14.31 crore shares | ₹219 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 227 | 246 | 269 | 298 | 333 |
| 10.50% | 207 | 223 | 242 | 264 | 292 |
| 11.00% | 190 | 203 | 219 | 237 | 260 |
| 11.50% | 175 | 186 | 200 | 215 | 233 |
| 12.00% | 162 | 172 | 183 | 196 | 211 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹613.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 32 · 216 · 363 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,332 | 2,768 | 3,213 | 3,896 | 4,734 | 5,752 | 6,989 | 8,491 | 10,317 |
| growth % | 19.1 | 18.7 | 16.0 | 21.3 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| EBITDA | 364 | 422 | 611 | 703 | 852 | 1,035 | 1,258 | 1,528 | 1,857 |
| margin % | 15.6 | 15.3 | 19.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| less depreciation | (56) | (76) | (94) | (135) | (166) | (201) | (245) | (297) | (361) |
| EBIT | 308 | 346 | 517 | 568 | 686 | 834 | 1,013 | 1,231 | 1,496 |
| less tax on EBIT | (143) | (173) | (210) | (255) | (310) | (377) | |||
| NOPAT | 425 | 513 | 624 | 758 | 921 | 1,119 | |||
| add depreciation | 56 | 76 | 94 | 135 | 166 | 201 | 245 | 297 | 361 |
| less capex | (125) | (91) | (98) | (139) | (170) | (216) | (273) | (344) | (433) |
| less working-capital build | — | (359) | (436) | (529) | (643) | (781) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (167) | 367 | 66 | — | 150 | 174 | 201 | 231 | 265 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 143 | 149 | 155 | 160 | 166 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 428, dividends at 36% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 568 | 686 | 834 | 1,013 | 1,231 | 1,496 |
| Interest at 6.1% on debt | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | |
| Profit before tax | 660 | 808 | 987 | 1,205 | 1,470 | |
| Profit after tax | 596 | 494 | 604 | 738 | 901 | 1,099 |
| Dividends | (215) | (178) | (218) | (266) | (325) | (396) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 31 | (16) | (80) | (164) | (277) | (427) |
| Working capital | 1,667 | 2,026 | 2,462 | 2,991 | 3,634 | 4,415 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,360 | 1,365 | 1,379 | 1,407 | 1,454 | 1,526 |
| Debt | 428 | 428 | 428 | 428 | 428 | 428 |
| Equity | 1,684 | 2,000 | 2,387 | 2,860 | 3,437 | 4,140 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 301 | 370 | 454 | 556 | 679 | |
| Investing (capex) | (170) | (216) | (273) | (344) | (433) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (178) | (218) | (266) | (325) | (396) | |
| Net change in cash | (47) | (63) | (85) | (113) | (150) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 131 | 154 | 181 | 212 | 246 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21.5% | 18% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹219 | (64.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.