Models
BANNARI AMMAN SUGARS LTDBANARISUGAgricultural Food & other Products
₹971per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹971implied FY26 P/E 10.0× · EV/EBITDA 6.1×
Against CMP ₹3,478.40−72.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹737₹1,438
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,105₹4,338
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 220 |
| PV of terminal value | 992 |
| Enterprise value | 1,213 |
| less net debt | 5 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,218 |
| ÷ 1.25 crore shares | ₹971 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,004 | 1,083 | 1,178 | 1,293 | 1,438 |
| 10.50% | 922 | 987 | 1,065 | 1,158 | 1,271 |
| 11.00% | 851 | 907 | 971 | 1,047 | 1,138 |
| 11.50% | 791 | 837 | 892 | 955 | 1,029 |
| 12.00% | 737 | 778 | 824 | 877 | 939 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,478.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 684 · 964 · 1,260 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,526 | 2,220 | 1,793 | 1,917 | 2,051 | 2,194 | 2,348 | 2,512 | 2,688 |
| growth % | 26.4 | (12.1) | (19.2) | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 304 | 306 | 210 | 198 | 211 | 226 | 242 | 259 | 277 |
| margin % | 12.0 | 13.8 | 11.7 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| less depreciation | (74) | (58) | (59) | (61) | (66) | (70) | (75) | (80) | (86) |
| EBIT | 230 | 249 | 152 | 137 | 146 | 156 | 167 | 178 | 191 |
| less tax on EBIT | (23) | (24) | (26) | (28) | (30) | (32) | |||
| NOPAT | 114 | 121 | 130 | 139 | 149 | 159 | |||
| add depreciation | 74 | 58 | 59 | 61 | 66 | 70 | 75 | 80 | 86 |
| less capex | (65) | (141) | (76) | (114) | (123) | (120) | (116) | (110) | (103) |
| less working-capital build | — | (35) | (38) | (40) | (43) | (46) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 437 | 133 | 354 | — | 29 | 42 | 58 | 76 | 96 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 27 | 36 | 45 | 53 | 60 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 9, dividends at 10.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 137 | 146 | 156 | 167 | 178 | 191 |
| Interest at 2.6% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 145 | 156 | 166 | 178 | 191 | |
| Profit after tax | 148 | 121 | 130 | 139 | 148 | 159 |
| Dividends | (16) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 13 | 29 | 57 | 101 | 160 | 239 |
| Working capital | 505 | 540 | 578 | 618 | 661 | 708 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,639 | 1,697 | 1,746 | 1,787 | 1,816 | 1,833 |
| Debt | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Equity | 1,913 | 2,022 | 2,138 | 2,261 | 2,394 | 2,536 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 151 | 162 | 173 | 186 | 199 | |
| Investing (capex) | (123) | (120) | (116) | (110) | (103) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) | |
| Net change in cash | 16 | 29 | 43 | 60 | 79 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 28 | 42 | 58 | 76 | 95 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 10.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹971 | (72.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.