Models
BASF INDIA LTDBASFChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹1,345per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,345implied FY26 P/E 9.0× · EV/EBITDA 7.5×
Against CMP ₹3,669.00−63.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,098₹1,838
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,122₹4,830
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,351 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,602 |
| Enterprise value | 4,953 |
| less net debt | 869 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,822 |
| ÷ 4.33 crore shares | ₹1,345 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,382 | 1,465 | 1,564 | 1,686 | 1,838 |
| 10.50% | 1,294 | 1,363 | 1,445 | 1,542 | 1,662 |
| 11.00% | 1,219 | 1,277 | 1,345 | 1,425 | 1,521 |
| 11.50% | 1,154 | 1,204 | 1,261 | 1,327 | 1,406 |
| 12.00% | 1,098 | 1,140 | 1,188 | 1,244 | 1,310 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,669.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,163 · 1,346 · 1,566 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13,767 | 15,260 | 14,944 | 14,645 | 14,352 | 14,065 | 13,784 | 13,508 |
| growth % | — | 10.8 | (2.1) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) |
| EBITDA | 890 | 763 | 660 | 644 | 631 | 619 | 606 | 594 |
| margin % | 6.5 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| less depreciation | (191) | (180) | (145) | (146) | (144) | (141) | (138) | (135) |
| EBIT | 699 | 582 | 515 | 498 | 488 | 478 | 469 | 459 |
| less tax on EBIT | (133) | (128) | (126) | (123) | (121) | (118) | ||
| NOPAT | 382 | 369 | 362 | 355 | 348 | 341 | ||
| add depreciation | 191 | 180 | 145 | 146 | 144 | 141 | 138 | 135 |
| less capex | (101) | (202) | (206) | (205) | (194) | (183) | (172) | (162) |
| less working-capital build | — | 36 | 35 | 34 | 34 | 33 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 706 | 171 | — | 347 | 347 | 347 | 347 | 347 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 329 | 297 | 267 | 241 | 217 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 515 | 498 | 488 | 478 | 469 | 459 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 498 | 488 | 478 | 469 | 459 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 369 | 362 | 355 | 348 | 341 |
| Dividends | (86) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 869 | 1,216 | 1,563 | 1,910 | 2,257 | 2,604 |
| Working capital | 1,797 | 1,762 | 1,726 | 1,692 | 1,658 | 1,625 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,769 | 5,828 | 5,878 | 5,920 | 5,955 | 5,982 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 3,957 | 4,327 | 4,689 | 5,044 | 5,392 | 5,732 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 552 | 541 | 530 | 519 | 509 | |
| Investing (capex) | (205) | (194) | (183) | (172) | (162) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 347 | 347 | 347 | 347 | 347 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 347 | 347 | 347 | 347 | 347 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -2% | 4.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,345 | (63.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.