Models
BATA INDIA LTDBATAINDIAConsumer Durables
₹176per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹176implied FY26 P/E 15.5× · EV/EBITDA 3.4×
Against CMP ₹649.95−72.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3142%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹153₹221
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹605₹1,283
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,302 |
| PV of terminal value | 949 |
| Enterprise value | 2,251 |
| less net debt | 9 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,260 |
| ÷ 12.85 crore shares | ₹176 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 180 | 187 | 196 | 207 | 221 |
| 10.50% | 172 | 178 | 185 | 194 | 204 |
| 11.00% | 165 | 170 | 176 | 183 | 191 |
| 11.50% | 158 | 163 | 168 | 174 | 181 |
| 12.00% | 153 | 157 | 161 | 166 | 172 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹649.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 117 · 174 · 233 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.97 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.19 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,452 | 3,479 | 3,489 | 3,515 | 3,551 | 3,586 | 3,622 | 3,658 | 3,695 |
| growth % | 44.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EBITDA | 794 | 745 | 861 | 658 | 664 | 671 | 677 | 684 | 691 |
| margin % | 23.0 | 21.4 | 24.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 |
| less depreciation | (295) | (339) | (371) | (420) | (423) | (427) | (431) | (435) | (440) |
| EBIT | 499 | 406 | 489 | 237 | 241 | 244 | 246 | 249 | 251 |
| less tax on EBIT | (62) | (63) | (64) | (65) | (65) | (66) | |||
| NOPAT | 175 | 178 | 180 | 182 | 183 | 185 | |||
| add depreciation | 295 | 339 | 371 | 420 | 423 | 427 | 431 | 435 | 440 |
| less capex | (95) | (101) | (73) | (66) | (67) | (179) | (293) | (409) | (528) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 533 | 352 | 665 | — | 527 | 422 | 314 | 204 | 91 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 501 | 361 | 242 | 141 | 57 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 86.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 237 | 241 | 244 | 246 | 249 | 251 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 241 | 244 | 246 | 249 | 251 | |
| Profit after tax | 134 | 178 | 180 | 182 | 183 | 185 |
| Dividends | (116) | (153) | (155) | (156) | (158) | (160) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 9 | 383 | 650 | 807 | 853 | 785 |
| Working capital | 561 | 566 | 572 | 577 | 583 | 589 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,209 | 2,854 | 2,606 | 2,468 | 2,442 | 2,530 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,596 | 1,620 | 1,645 | 1,670 | 1,695 | 1,721 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 595 | 601 | 607 | 613 | 619 | |
| Investing (capex) | (67) | (179) | (293) | (409) | (528) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (153) | (155) | (156) | (158) | (160) | |
| Net change in cash | 374 | 267 | 157 | 46 | (68) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 527 | 422 | 314 | 204 | 91 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1% | 18.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹176 | (72.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.