Models
BAYER CROPSCIENCE LTDBAYERCROPFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹2,351per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,351implied FY26 P/E 15.3× · EV/EBITDA 10.5×
Against CMP ₹3,985.60−41.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,910₹3,228
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,935₹5,489
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,489 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,651 |
| Enterprise value | 9,140 |
| less net debt | 1,415 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 10,555 |
| ÷ 4.49 crore shares | ₹2,351 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,416 | 2,564 | 2,741 | 2,957 | 3,228 |
| 10.50% | 2,260 | 2,383 | 2,528 | 2,702 | 2,915 |
| 11.00% | 2,127 | 2,230 | 2,351 | 2,493 | 2,664 |
| 11.50% | 2,011 | 2,099 | 2,201 | 2,319 | 2,459 |
| 12.00% | 1,910 | 1,986 | 2,072 | 2,172 | 2,288 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,985.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,019 · 2,338 · 2,719 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,140 | 5,103 | 5,473 | 5,675 | 5,874 | 6,079 | 6,292 | 6,512 | 6,740 |
| growth % | 8.6 | (0.7) | 7.3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,028 | 954 | 690 | 874 | 905 | 936 | 969 | 1,003 | 1,038 |
| margin % | 20.0 | 18.7 | 12.6 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 |
| less depreciation | (80) | (74) | (85) | (94) | (100) | (103) | (107) | (111) | (115) |
| EBIT | 949 | 880 | 605 | 780 | 805 | 833 | 862 | 892 | 923 |
| less tax on EBIT | (151) | (156) | (162) | (167) | (173) | (179) | |||
| NOPAT | 628 | 649 | 671 | 695 | 719 | 744 | |||
| add depreciation | 80 | 74 | 85 | 94 | 100 | 103 | 107 | 111 | 115 |
| less capex | (44) | (33) | (26) | (40) | (41) | (63) | (86) | (111) | (137) |
| less working-capital build | — | (71) | (73) | (76) | (78) | (81) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 565 | 919 | 236 | — | 637 | 639 | 640 | 641 | 640 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 604 | 546 | 493 | 445 | 400 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 81.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 780 | 805 | 833 | 862 | 892 | 923 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 805 | 833 | 862 | 892 | 923 | |
| Profit after tax | 689 | 649 | 671 | 695 | 719 | 744 |
| Dividends | (563) | (530) | (548) | (568) | (587) | (608) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,415 | 1,522 | 1,612 | 1,684 | 1,737 | 1,770 |
| Working capital | 2,013 | 2,084 | 2,157 | 2,232 | 2,311 | 2,392 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,271 | 2,213 | 2,172 | 2,151 | 2,152 | 2,175 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,966 | 3,084 | 3,207 | 3,334 | 3,466 | 3,602 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 678 | 702 | 726 | 752 | 778 | |
| Investing (capex) | (41) | (63) | (86) | (111) | (137) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (530) | (548) | (568) | (587) | (608) | |
| Net change in cash | 107 | 90 | 72 | 53 | 32 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 637 | 639 | 640 | 641 | 640 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3.5% | 15.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,351 | (41.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.