Models
BCL INDUSTRIES LIMITEDBCLINDBeverages
₹46per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹46implied FY26 P/E 11.5× · EV/EBITDA 7.3×
Against CMP ₹34.25+33.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(8.9)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹31₹74
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹26₹45
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 372 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,402 |
| Enterprise value | 1,774 |
| less net debt | (430) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,344 |
| ÷ 29.52 crore shares | ₹46 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 48 | 52 | 58 | 65 | 74 |
| 10.50% | 43 | 47 | 51 | 57 | 64 |
| 11.00% | 38 | 42 | 46 | 50 | 56 |
| 11.50% | 35 | 38 | 41 | 45 | 49 |
| 12.00% | 31 | 34 | 37 | 40 | 44 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹34.25; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 35 · 46 · 58 |
| Draws below the CMP | 9% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,820 | 2,201 | 2,910 | 2,904 | 2,904 | 2,904 | 2,904 | 2,904 | 2,904 |
| growth % | (8.7) | 20.9 | 32.2 | (0.2) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBITDA | 124 | 191 | 205 | 242 | 241 | 241 | 241 | 241 | 241 |
| margin % | 6.8 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| less depreciation | (25) | (36) | (46) | (51) | (49) | (49) | (49) | (49) | (49) |
| EBIT | 99 | 155 | 158 | 191 | 192 | 192 | 192 | 192 | 192 |
| less tax on EBIT | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | |||
| NOPAT | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 | |||
| add depreciation | 25 | 36 | 46 | 51 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| less capex | (256) | (137) | (134) | (132) | (131) | (113) | (95) | (77) | (59) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (222) | (98) | (71) | — | 64 | 81 | 99 | 117 | 135 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 60 | 70 | 76 | 81 | 84 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 568, dividends at 6.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 191 | 192 | 192 | 192 | 192 | 192 |
| Interest at 6% on debt | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | |
| Profit before tax | 158 | 158 | 158 | 158 | 158 | |
| Profit after tax | 115 | 119 | 119 | 119 | 119 | 119 |
| Dividends | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 138 | 168 | 216 | 281 | 364 | 465 |
| Working capital | 302 | 302 | 302 | 302 | 302 | 302 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,207 | 1,289 | 1,352 | 1,398 | 1,425 | 1,435 |
| Debt | 568 | 568 | 568 | 568 | 568 | 568 |
| Equity | 951 | 1,062 | 1,173 | 1,284 | 1,395 | 1,506 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | |
| Investing (capex) | (131) | (113) | (95) | (77) | (59) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Net change in cash | 30 | 48 | 65 | 83 | 101 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 38 | 56 | 74 | 91 | 109 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 0% | 8.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹46 | 33.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.