Models
BELRISE INDUSTRIES LTDBELRISEAuto Components
₹91per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹91implied FY26 P/E 15.2× · EV/EBITDA 7.6×
Against CMP ₹228.60−60.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹67₹138
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹140₹268
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,642 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,062 |
| Enterprise value | 8,704 |
| less net debt | (633) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 8,071 |
| ÷ 88.99 crore shares | ₹91 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 94 | 102 | 111 | 123 | 138 |
| 10.50% | 86 | 92 | 100 | 109 | 121 |
| 11.00% | 79 | 84 | 91 | 98 | 107 |
| 11.50% | 73 | 77 | 83 | 89 | 97 |
| 12.00% | 67 | 71 | 76 | 81 | 87 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹228.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 63 · 90 · 120 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,291 | 9,509 | 10,888 | 12,467 | 14,274 | 16,344 | 18,714 |
| growth % | — | 14.7 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,021 | 1,149 | 1,317 | 1,508 | 1,727 | 1,978 | 2,264 |
| margin % | 12.3 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 |
| less depreciation | (330) | (361) | (414) | (474) | (542) | (621) | (711) |
| EBIT | 691 | 788 | 904 | 1,035 | 1,185 | 1,357 | 1,553 |
| less tax on EBIT | (200) | (230) | (263) | (301) | (345) | (395) | |
| NOPAT | 588 | 674 | 772 | 884 | 1,012 | 1,159 | |
| add depreciation | 330 | 361 | 414 | 474 | 542 | 621 | 711 |
| less capex | (738) | (565) | (642) | (694) | (747) | (800) | (853) |
| less working-capital build | — | (196) | (224) | (257) | (294) | (337) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (34) | — | 250 | 328 | 423 | 539 | 680 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 237 | 280 | 326 | 374 | 425 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,439, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 788 | 904 | 1,035 | 1,185 | 1,357 | 1,553 |
| Interest at 10.7% on debt | (154) | (154) | (154) | (154) | (154) | |
| Profit before tax | 750 | 881 | 1,031 | 1,203 | 1,399 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 559 | 657 | 769 | 897 | 1,044 |
| Dividends | (49) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 806 | 941 | 1,154 | 1,462 | 1,886 | 2,451 |
| Working capital | 1,355 | 1,551 | 1,775 | 2,031 | 2,325 | 2,662 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,389 | 6,618 | 6,838 | 7,042 | 7,221 | 7,363 |
| Debt | 1,439 | 1,439 | 1,439 | 1,439 | 1,439 | 1,439 |
| Equity | 5,226 | 5,786 | 6,443 | 7,212 | 8,109 | 9,153 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 777 | 907 | 1,055 | 1,224 | 1,418 | |
| Investing (capex) | (642) | (694) | (747) | (800) | (853) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 135 | 213 | 308 | 424 | 565 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 135 | 213 | 308 | 424 | 565 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14.5% | 12.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹91 | (60.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.