Models
BERGER PAINTS (I) LTDBERGEPAINTConsumer Durables
₹121per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹121implied FY26 P/E 11.6× · EV/EBITDA 8.1×
Against CMP ₹458.50−73.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹93₹176
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹391₹595
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,683 |
| PV of terminal value | 10,815 |
| Enterprise value | 14,499 |
| less net debt | (428) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 14,071 |
| ÷ 116.60 crore shares | ₹121 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 125 | 134 | 145 | 159 | 176 |
| 10.50% | 115 | 123 | 132 | 143 | 156 |
| 11.00% | 107 | 113 | 121 | 130 | 140 |
| 11.50% | 99 | 105 | 111 | 119 | 127 |
| 12.00% | 93 | 98 | 103 | 110 | 117 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹458.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 98 · 120 · 146 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,568 | 11,199 | 11,545 | 11,880 | 12,237 | 12,604 | 12,982 | 13,371 | 13,772 |
| growth % | 20.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,487 | 1,861 | 1,856 | 1,780 | 1,835 | 1,891 | 1,947 | 2,006 | 2,066 |
| margin % | 14.1 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| less depreciation | (264) | (331) | (354) | (392) | (404) | (416) | (428) | (441) | (454) |
| EBIT | 1,223 | 1,530 | 1,502 | 1,388 | 1,432 | 1,475 | 1,519 | 1,564 | 1,611 |
| less tax on EBIT | (348) | (359) | (370) | (381) | (393) | (404) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,040 | 1,072 | 1,105 | 1,138 | 1,172 | 1,207 | |||
| add depreciation | 264 | 331 | 354 | 392 | 404 | 416 | 428 | 441 | 454 |
| less capex | (748) | (275) | (429) | (518) | (538) | (541) | (543) | (544) | (545) |
| less working-capital build | — | (66) | (68) | (70) | (72) | (75) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 228 | 1,316 | 840 | — | 871 | 911 | 953 | 996 | 1,041 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 827 | 779 | 734 | 691 | 651 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 635, dividends at 39.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,388 | 1,432 | 1,475 | 1,519 | 1,564 | 1,611 |
| Interest at 8.8% on debt | (56) | (56) | (56) | (56) | (56) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,376 | 1,419 | 1,463 | 1,509 | 1,555 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,127 | 1,030 | 1,063 | 1,096 | 1,130 | 1,165 |
| Dividends | (443) | (405) | (418) | (431) | (444) | (458) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 207 | 632 | 1,084 | 1,564 | 2,075 | 2,617 |
| Working capital | 2,213 | 2,280 | 2,348 | 2,418 | 2,491 | 2,565 |
| Net block and other assets | 7,637 | 7,771 | 7,896 | 8,010 | 8,113 | 8,204 |
| Debt | 635 | 635 | 635 | 635 | 635 | 635 |
| Equity | 6,930 | 7,555 | 8,200 | 8,866 | 9,551 | 10,259 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,368 | 1,410 | 1,454 | 1,499 | 1,545 | |
| Investing (capex) | (538) | (541) | (543) | (544) | (545) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (405) | (418) | (431) | (444) | (458) | |
| Net change in cash | 425 | 452 | 481 | 510 | 542 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 830 | 870 | 911 | 955 | 1,000 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 15% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹121 | (73.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.