Models
BHAGWATI AUTOCAST LTD.BSE 504646Auto Components
₹1,125per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,125implied FY26 P/E 24.9× · EV/EBITDA 14.0×
Against CMP ₹655.00+71.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies1.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹859₹1,656
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹352₹734
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 65 |
| PV of terminal value | 259 |
| Enterprise value | 324 |
| less net debt | 0 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 324 |
| ÷ 0.29 crore shares | ₹1,125 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,163 | 1,253 | 1,360 | 1,492 | 1,656 |
| 10.50% | 1,069 | 1,144 | 1,232 | 1,337 | 1,466 |
| 11.00% | 989 | 1,052 | 1,125 | 1,211 | 1,315 |
| 11.50% | 920 | 973 | 1,035 | 1,107 | 1,191 |
| 12.00% | 859 | 905 | 957 | 1,018 | 1,088 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹655.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 868 · 1,109 · 1,420 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 154 | 134 | 140 | 171 | 210 | 257 | 315 | 386 | 472 |
| growth % | 37.6 | (13.0) | 4.3 | 22.4 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| EBITDA | 15 | 13 | 12 | 23 | 28 | 35 | 42 | 52 | 64 |
| margin % | 9.6 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (9) |
| EBIT | 12 | 10 | 9 | 20 | 24 | 30 | 36 | 44 | 54 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (8) | (9) | (11) | (14) | (17) | |||
| NOPAT | 14 | 17 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 37 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 |
| less capex | (0) | (3) | (14) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (10) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 12 | 4 | (4) | — | 11 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 25 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 9, dividends at 5.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 20 | 24 | 30 | 36 | 44 | 54 |
| Interest at 9% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 23 | 29 | 35 | 44 | 54 | |
| Profit after tax | 13 | 16 | 20 | 24 | 30 | 37 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 9 | 19 | 31 | 46 | 64 | 87 |
| Working capital | 21 | 25 | 31 | 38 | 47 | 57 |
| Net block and other assets | 62 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 66 | 68 |
| Debt | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Equity | 59 | 74 | 93 | 116 | 144 | 179 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 16 | 19 | 24 | 29 | 36 | |
| Investing (capex) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | |
| Net change in cash | 10 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 22 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 11 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 24 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 22.5% | 13.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,125 | 71.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.