Models
BHARAT DYNAMICS LIMITEDBDLAerospace & Defense
₹82per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹82implied FY26 P/E 5.8× · EV/EBITDA 9.6×
Against CMP ₹1,190.00−93.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹69₹109
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,086₹1,654
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 463 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,686 |
| Enterprise value | 2,149 |
| less net debt | 863 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,012 |
| ÷ 36.66 crore shares | ₹82 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 84 | 89 | 94 | 101 | 109 |
| 10.50% | 79 | 83 | 88 | 93 | 100 |
| 11.00% | 75 | 78 | 82 | 87 | 92 |
| 11.50% | 72 | 74 | 78 | 81 | 86 |
| 12.00% | 69 | 71 | 74 | 77 | 80 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,190.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 74 · 82 · 92 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.83 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,489 | 2,369 | 3,345 | 2,442 | 2,320 | 2,204 | 2,094 | 1,989 | 1,889 |
| growth % | (11.6) | (4.8) | 41.2 | (27.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 408 | 537 | 472 | 223 | 211 | 201 | 191 | 181 | 172 |
| margin % | 16.4 | 22.6 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| less depreciation | (77) | (67) | (71) | (76) | (72) | (68) | (65) | (62) | (59) |
| EBIT | 331 | 470 | 402 | 147 | 139 | 132 | 126 | 119 | 113 |
| less tax on EBIT | (38) | (36) | (34) | (33) | (31) | (29) | |||
| NOPAT | 109 | 103 | 98 | 93 | 88 | 84 | |||
| add depreciation | 77 | 67 | 71 | 76 | 72 | 68 | 65 | 62 | 59 |
| less capex | (108) | (81) | (108) | (217) | (206) | (168) | (132) | (100) | (70) |
| less working-capital build | — | 111 | 105 | 100 | 95 | 90 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,022 | 331 | 59 | — | 79 | 104 | 126 | 145 | 162 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 75 | 89 | 97 | 101 | 102 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 45.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 147 | 139 | 132 | 126 | 119 | 113 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 139 | 132 | 126 | 119 | 113 | |
| Profit after tax | 420 | 103 | 98 | 93 | 88 | 84 |
| Dividends | (190) | (47) | (44) | (42) | (40) | (38) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 863 | 896 | 955 | 1,039 | 1,144 | 1,268 |
| Working capital | 2,214 | 2,103 | 1,998 | 1,898 | 1,803 | 1,713 |
| Net block and other assets | 11,185 | 11,319 | 11,418 | 11,486 | 11,524 | 11,535 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 4,241 | 4,297 | 4,351 | 4,402 | 4,450 | 4,496 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 286 | 271 | 258 | 245 | 233 | |
| Investing (capex) | (206) | (168) | (132) | (100) | (70) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (47) | (44) | (42) | (40) | (38) | |
| Net change in cash | 33 | 59 | 84 | 105 | 124 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 79 | 104 | 126 | 145 | 162 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 9.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹82 | (93.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.