Models
BHARAT ELECTRONICS LTDBELAerospace & Defense
₹109per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹109implied FY26 P/E 12.9× · EV/EBITDA 9.6×
Against CMP ₹404.35−73.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹84₹158
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹373₹473
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 16,046 |
| PV of terminal value | 61,559 |
| Enterprise value | 77,606 |
| less net debt | 1,888 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 79,494 |
| ÷ 730.98 crore shares | ₹109 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 112 | 121 | 131 | 143 | 158 |
| 10.50% | 104 | 111 | 119 | 129 | 141 |
| 11.00% | 96 | 102 | 109 | 117 | 127 |
| 11.50% | 90 | 95 | 100 | 107 | 115 |
| 12.00% | 84 | 88 | 93 | 99 | 105 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹404.35; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 81 · 108 · 135 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 17,734 | 20,268 | 23,769 | 27,610 | 32,028 | 37,152 | 43,097 | 49,992 | 57,991 |
| growth % | 15.4 | 14.3 | 17.3 | 16.2 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 4,086 | 5,046 | 6,834 | 8,049 | 9,352 | 10,848 | 12,584 | 14,598 | 16,933 |
| margin % | 23.0 | 24.9 | 28.8 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 29.2 |
| less depreciation | (429) | (443) | (467) | (556) | (641) | (743) | (862) | (1,000) | (1,160) |
| EBIT | 3,657 | 4,603 | 6,366 | 7,494 | 8,712 | 10,105 | 11,722 | 13,598 | 15,773 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,888) | (2,195) | (2,547) | (2,954) | (3,427) | (3,975) | |||
| NOPAT | 5,605 | 6,516 | 7,559 | 8,768 | 10,171 | 11,799 | |||
| add depreciation | 429 | 443 | 467 | 556 | 641 | 743 | 862 | 1,000 | 1,160 |
| less capex | (590) | (653) | (1,011) | (985) | (1,153) | (1,226) | (1,293) | (1,350) | (1,392) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3,114) | (3,613) | (4,191) | (4,861) | (5,639) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 676 | 4,007 | (425) | — | 2,889 | 3,463 | 4,147 | 4,960 | 5,927 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,742 | 2,961 | 3,194 | 3,442 | 3,706 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 34.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 7,494 | 8,712 | 10,105 | 11,722 | 13,598 | 15,773 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 8,712 | 10,105 | 11,722 | 13,598 | 15,773 | |
| Profit after tax | 6,062 | 6,516 | 7,559 | 8,768 | 10,171 | 11,799 |
| Dividends | (2,083) | (2,242) | (2,600) | (3,016) | (3,499) | (4,059) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,888 | 2,536 | 3,399 | 4,529 | 5,990 | 7,859 |
| Working capital | 19,471 | 22,585 | 26,198 | 30,389 | 35,250 | 40,889 |
| Net block and other assets | 23,179 | 23,691 | 24,174 | 24,605 | 24,955 | 25,187 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 24,007 | 28,282 | 33,240 | 38,992 | 45,665 | 53,404 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 4,042 | 4,689 | 5,439 | 6,310 | 7,319 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,153) | (1,226) | (1,293) | (1,350) | (1,392) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2,242) | (2,600) | (3,016) | (3,499) | (4,059) | |
| Net change in cash | 648 | 863 | 1,130 | 1,461 | 1,869 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,889 | 3,463 | 4,147 | 4,960 | 5,927 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 29.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹109 | (73.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.