Models
BHARAT FORGE LTDBHARATFORGAuto Components
₹110per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹110implied FY26 P/E 7.4× · EV/EBITDA 4.1×
Against CMP ₹1,944.90−94.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹56₹216
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,179₹2,295
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,661 |
| PV of terminal value | 8,606 |
| Enterprise value | 11,267 |
| less net debt | (6,027) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,240 |
| ÷ 47.81 crore shares | ₹110 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 117 | 135 | 157 | 183 | 216 |
| 10.50% | 99 | 113 | 131 | 152 | 178 |
| 11.00% | 82 | 95 | 110 | 127 | 148 |
| 11.50% | 68 | 79 | 91 | 106 | 123 |
| 12.00% | 56 | 65 | 76 | 88 | 102 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,944.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 11 · 107 · 203 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.28 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.27 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12,910 | 15,682 | 15,123 | 16,812 | 18,661 | 20,714 | 22,992 | 25,521 | 28,329 |
| growth % | 23.4 | 21.5 | (3.6) | 11.2 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,722 | 2,546 | 2,537 | 2,772 | 3,079 | 3,418 | 3,794 | 4,211 | 4,674 |
| margin % | 13.3 | 16.2 | 16.8 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| less depreciation | (736) | (848) | (874) | (971) | (1,082) | (1,201) | (1,334) | (1,480) | (1,643) |
| EBIT | 986 | 1,697 | 1,663 | 1,801 | 1,997 | 2,216 | 2,460 | 2,731 | 3,031 |
| less tax on EBIT | (621) | (689) | (765) | (849) | (942) | (1,046) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,180 | 1,308 | 1,452 | 1,611 | 1,789 | 1,985 | |||
| add depreciation | 736 | 848 | 874 | 971 | 1,082 | 1,201 | 1,334 | 1,480 | 1,643 |
| less capex | (996) | (1,524) | (1,450) | (1,140) | (1,269) | (1,417) | (1,582) | (1,766) | (1,972) |
| less working-capital build | — | (546) | (606) | (672) | (746) | (828) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 298 | 140 | 346 | — | 576 | 631 | 691 | 757 | 829 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 546 | 539 | 532 | 525 | 518 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 6,875, dividends at 35.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,801 | 1,997 | 2,216 | 2,460 | 2,731 | 3,031 |
| Interest at 4.9% on debt | (337) | (337) | (337) | (337) | (337) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,660 | 1,880 | 2,123 | 2,394 | 2,694 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,080 | 1,087 | 1,231 | 1,391 | 1,568 | 1,765 |
| Dividends | (380) | (383) | (433) | (490) | (552) | (621) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 848 | 820 | 797 | 778 | 762 | 749 |
| Working capital | 4,965 | 5,511 | 6,116 | 6,788 | 7,535 | 8,363 |
| Net block and other assets | 16,447 | 16,633 | 16,849 | 17,097 | 17,383 | 17,712 |
| Debt | 6,875 | 6,875 | 6,875 | 6,875 | 6,875 | 6,875 |
| Equity | 9,557 | 10,261 | 11,059 | 11,960 | 12,976 | 14,120 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,624 | 1,827 | 2,052 | 2,302 | 2,580 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,269) | (1,417) | (1,582) | (1,766) | (1,972) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (383) | (433) | (490) | (552) | (621) | |
| Net change in cash | (28) | (23) | (19) | (16) | (13) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 355 | 410 | 470 | 536 | 608 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 16.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹110 | (94.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.