Models
BHARAT GEARS LTDBHARATGEARAuto Components
₹136per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹136implied FY26 P/E 13.9× · EV/EBITDA 5.1×
Against CMP ₹101.11+34.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3164%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹102₹202
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹84₹154
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 95 |
| PV of terminal value | 172 |
| Enterprise value | 267 |
| less net debt | (58) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 209 |
| ÷ 1.54 crore shares | ₹136 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 141 | 152 | 166 | 182 | 202 |
| 10.50% | 129 | 138 | 149 | 162 | 179 |
| 11.00% | 119 | 127 | 136 | 147 | 159 |
| 11.50% | 110 | 117 | 124 | 133 | 144 |
| 12.00% | 102 | 108 | 115 | 122 | 131 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹101.11; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 36 · 133 · 223 |
| Draws below the CMP | 33% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.95 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.23 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 766 | 663 | 648 | 784 | 949 | 1,148 | 1,389 | 1,681 | 2,034 |
| growth % | 5.1 | (13.5) | (2.3) | 21.1 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
| EBITDA | 46 | 24 | 42 | 52 | 64 | 77 | 93 | 113 | 136 |
| margin % | 6.0 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| less depreciation | (20) | (23) | (24) | (23) | (28) | (33) | (40) | (49) | (59) |
| EBIT | 26 | 1 | 19 | 30 | 36 | 44 | 53 | 64 | 77 |
| less tax on EBIT | (7) | (9) | (11) | (13) | (16) | (19) | |||
| NOPAT | 22 | 27 | 33 | 40 | 48 | 58 | |||
| add depreciation | 20 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 28 | 33 | 40 | 49 | 59 |
| less capex | (26) | (14) | (14) | (11) | (13) | (22) | (34) | (50) | (71) |
| less working-capital build | — | (14) | (17) | (20) | (25) | (30) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 16 | 32 | 35 | — | 27 | 27 | 26 | 22 | 17 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 26 | 23 | 20 | 16 | 10 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 58, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 30 | 36 | 44 | 53 | 64 | 77 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 31 | 39 | 48 | 59 | 73 | |
| Profit after tax | 17 | 24 | 29 | 36 | 44 | 54 |
| Dividends | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 24 | 48 | 70 | 89 | 102 |
| Working capital | 66 | 80 | 96 | 117 | 141 | 171 |
| Net block and other assets | 335 | 321 | 309 | 303 | 304 | 316 |
| Debt | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 |
| Equity | 131 | 155 | 184 | 220 | 264 | 319 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 37 | 46 | 56 | 69 | 84 | |
| Investing (capex) | (13) | (22) | (34) | (50) | (71) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 24 | 24 | 22 | 19 | 13 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 24 | 24 | 22 | 19 | 13 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21% | 6.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹136 | 34.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.