Models
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LTBPCLPetroleum Products
₹749per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹749implied FY26 P/E 18.7× · EV/EBITDA 8.9×
Against CMP ₹304.50+145.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(14.5)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹553₹1,139
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹267₹392
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 80,425 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,82,572 |
| Enterprise value | 3,62,997 |
| less net debt | (43,162) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,19,835 |
| ÷ 427.26 crore shares | ₹749 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 777 | 843 | 922 | 1,019 | 1,139 |
| 10.50% | 708 | 763 | 827 | 905 | 1,000 |
| 11.00% | 649 | 695 | 749 | 812 | 888 |
| 11.50% | 597 | 637 | 682 | 735 | 797 |
| 12.00% | 553 | 586 | 625 | 669 | 721 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹304.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 594 · 741 · 924 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.19 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,33,547 | 5,06,993 | 5,00,517 | 5,22,820 | 5,46,347 | 5,70,933 | 5,96,625 | 6,23,473 | 6,51,529 |
| growth % | 23.3 | (5.0) | (1.3) | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| EBITDA | 9,245 | 43,814 | 25,023 | 40,791 | 42,615 | 44,533 | 46,537 | 48,631 | 50,819 |
| margin % | 1.7 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| less depreciation | (6,369) | (6,771) | (7,257) | (7,856) | (8,195) | (8,564) | (8,949) | (9,352) | (9,773) |
| EBIT | 2,876 | 37,043 | 17,766 | 32,935 | 34,420 | 35,969 | 37,587 | 39,279 | 41,046 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8,860) | (9,259) | (9,676) | (10,111) | (10,566) | (11,041) | |||
| NOPAT | 24,076 | 25,161 | 26,293 | 27,476 | 28,713 | 30,005 | |||
| add depreciation | 6,369 | 6,771 | 7,257 | 7,856 | 8,195 | 8,564 | 8,949 | 9,352 | 9,773 |
| less capex | (7,444) | (8,839) | (13,343) | (15,956) | (16,937) | (15,843) | (14,617) | (13,249) | (11,728) |
| less working-capital build | — | (706) | (738) | (771) | (805) | (842) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5,021 | 27,097 | 10,335 | — | 15,714 | 18,276 | 21,038 | 24,011 | 27,209 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 14,915 | 15,628 | 16,207 | 16,664 | 17,012 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 43,482, dividends at 36.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 32,935 | 34,420 | 35,969 | 37,587 | 39,279 | 41,046 |
| Interest at 6.2% on debt | (2,696) | (2,696) | (2,696) | (2,696) | (2,696) | |
| Profit before tax | 31,724 | 33,273 | 34,891 | 36,583 | 38,350 | |
| Profit after tax | 25,843 | 23,190 | 24,322 | 25,506 | 26,742 | 28,034 |
| Dividends | (9,525) | (8,557) | (8,975) | (9,412) | (9,868) | (10,345) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 320 | 5,506 | 12,836 | 22,492 | 34,664 | 49,557 |
| Working capital | 15,613 | 16,319 | 17,056 | 17,827 | 18,633 | 19,474 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,32,683 | 2,41,425 | 2,48,704 | 2,54,372 | 2,58,269 | 2,60,223 |
| Debt | 43,482 | 43,482 | 43,482 | 43,482 | 43,482 | 43,482 |
| Equity | 1,00,170 | 1,14,803 | 1,30,151 | 1,46,245 | 1,63,119 | 1,80,809 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 30,680 | 32,149 | 33,684 | 35,289 | 36,965 | |
| Investing (capex) | (16,937) | (15,843) | (14,617) | (13,249) | (11,728) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (8,557) | (8,975) | (9,412) | (9,868) | (10,345) | |
| Net change in cash | 5,186 | 7,331 | 9,655 | 12,172 | 14,893 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 13,743 | 16,306 | 19,067 | 22,040 | 25,238 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4.5% | 7.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹749 | 145.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.