Models
BHARAT RASAYAN LTDBHARATRASFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹789per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹789implied FY26 P/E 5.8× · EV/EBITDA 7.2×
Against CMP ₹1,156.30−31.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹603₹1,161
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,148₹2,988
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 245 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,045 |
| Enterprise value | 1,290 |
| less net debt | 22 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,312 |
| ÷ 1.66 crore shares | ₹789 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 816 | 879 | 954 | 1,046 | 1,161 |
| 10.50% | 750 | 802 | 864 | 938 | 1,028 |
| 11.00% | 694 | 738 | 789 | 850 | 922 |
| 11.50% | 646 | 683 | 726 | 776 | 836 |
| 12.00% | 603 | 636 | 672 | 714 | 764 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,156.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 609 · 784 · 977 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.23 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,234 | 1,045 | 1,173 | 1,242 | 1,316 | 1,395 | 1,479 | 1,568 | 1,662 |
| growth % | 1.6 | (15.4) | 12.3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 193 | 117 | 175 | 180 | 191 | 202 | 214 | 227 | 241 |
| margin % | 15.6 | 11.2 | 14.9 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| less depreciation | (26) | (26) | (27) | (26) | (28) | (29) | (31) | (33) | (35) |
| EBIT | 167 | 91 | 148 | 154 | 163 | 173 | 183 | 194 | 206 |
| less tax on EBIT | (38) | (41) | (43) | (46) | (49) | (52) | |||
| NOPAT | 115 | 122 | 130 | 138 | 146 | 155 | |||
| add depreciation | 26 | 26 | 27 | 26 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 33 | 35 |
| less capex | (24) | (27) | (36) | (74) | (78) | (71) | (62) | (53) | (42) |
| less working-capital build | — | (37) | (39) | (42) | (44) | (47) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 190 | 14 | 136 | — | 35 | 49 | 65 | 82 | 101 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 33 | 42 | 50 | 57 | 63 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 154 | 163 | 173 | 183 | 194 | 206 |
| Interest at 10.6% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 163 | 173 | 183 | 194 | 206 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 122 | 130 | 137 | 146 | 154 |
| Dividends | (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 23 | 58 | 107 | 171 | 253 | 353 |
| Working capital | 619 | 656 | 696 | 738 | 782 | 829 |
| Net block and other assets | 791 | 841 | 882 | 913 | 933 | 940 |
| Debt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Equity | 1,275 | 1,397 | 1,527 | 1,664 | 1,810 | 1,964 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 113 | 120 | 127 | 134 | 142 | |
| Investing (capex) | (78) | (71) | (62) | (53) | (42) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 35 | 49 | 64 | 82 | 101 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 35 | 49 | 64 | 82 | 101 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 14.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹789 | (31.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.