Models
BHARAT SEATS LIMITEDBHARATSEAuto Components
₹274per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹274implied FY26 P/E 37.2× · EV/EBITDA 18.0×
Against CMP ₹218.00+25.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies23.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹205₹411
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹134₹263
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 297 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,459 |
| Enterprise value | 1,756 |
| less net debt | (35) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,721 |
| ÷ 6.28 crore shares | ₹274 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 284 | 307 | 335 | 369 | 411 |
| 10.50% | 260 | 279 | 302 | 329 | 362 |
| 11.00% | 239 | 255 | 274 | 296 | 323 |
| 11.50% | 221 | 235 | 251 | 269 | 291 |
| 12.00% | 205 | 217 | 231 | 246 | 265 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹218.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 189 · 270 · 385 |
| Draws below the CMP | 22% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.52 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.36 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,051 | 1,067 | 1,289 | 1,951 | 2,536 | 3,297 | 4,286 | 5,572 | 7,244 |
| growth % | 28.5 | 1.5 | 20.8 | 51.4 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 46 | 61 | 75 | 98 | 127 | 165 | 214 | 279 | 362 |
| margin % | 4.4 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| less depreciation | (17) | (24) | (26) | (35) | (46) | (59) | (77) | (100) | (130) |
| EBIT | 29 | 37 | 49 | 62 | 81 | 106 | 137 | 178 | 232 |
| less tax on EBIT | (17) | (22) | (28) | (37) | (48) | (62) | |||
| NOPAT | 46 | 59 | 77 | 101 | 131 | 170 | |||
| add depreciation | 17 | 24 | 26 | 35 | 46 | 59 | 77 | 100 | 130 |
| less capex | (61) | (73) | (70) | (51) | (66) | (82) | (102) | (126) | (156) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (18) | (17) | 26 | — | 38 | 53 | 74 | 102 | 140 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 36 | 45 | 57 | 71 | 88 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 50, dividends at 16.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 62 | 81 | 106 | 137 | 178 | 232 |
| Interest at 15.6% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 73 | 98 | 129 | 170 | 224 | |
| Profit after tax | 42 | 54 | 72 | 95 | 125 | 164 |
| Dividends | (7) | (9) | (12) | (16) | (20) | (27) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 15 | 39 | 74 | 127 | 202 | 310 |
| Working capital | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 15 |
| Net block and other assets | 717 | 737 | 760 | 784 | 811 | 837 |
| Debt | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Equity | 230 | 275 | 334 | 414 | 518 | 655 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 98 | 129 | 170 | 223 | 291 | |
| Investing (capex) | (66) | (82) | (102) | (126) | (156) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (9) | (12) | (16) | (20) | (27) | |
| Net change in cash | 23 | 36 | 52 | 76 | 108 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 32 | 47 | 68 | 96 | 135 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹274 | 25.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.