Models
BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITEDBHARTIARTLTelecom - Services
₹2,040per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,040implied FY26 P/E 41.6× · EV/EBITDA 11.6×
Against CMP ₹1,831.10+11.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies19.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,538₹3,043
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,741₹2,175
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,18,306 |
| PV of terminal value | 10,35,397 |
| Enterprise value | 13,53,704 |
| less net debt | (1,07,949) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 12,45,755 |
| ÷ 610.52 crore shares | ₹2,040 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,114 | 2,283 | 2,486 | 2,734 | 3,043 |
| 10.50% | 1,936 | 2,077 | 2,243 | 2,442 | 2,685 |
| 11.00% | 1,784 | 1,903 | 2,040 | 2,203 | 2,399 |
| 11.50% | 1,653 | 1,753 | 1,869 | 2,005 | 2,165 |
| 12.00% | 1,538 | 1,624 | 1,723 | 1,837 | 1,970 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,831.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,402 · 2,009 · 2,824 |
| Draws below the CMP | 37% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.59 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.36 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,39,145 | 1,49,982 | 1,72,985 | 2,10,973 | 2,57,387 | 3,14,012 | 3,83,095 | 4,67,375 | 5,70,198 |
| growth % | 19.4 | 7.8 | 15.3 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
| EBITDA | 70,604 | 70,720 | 1,00,446 | 1,16,257 | 1,41,820 | 1,73,021 | 2,11,085 | 2,57,524 | 3,14,179 |
| margin % | 50.7 | 47.2 | 58.1 | 55.1 | 55.1 | 55.1 | 55.1 | 55.1 | 55.1 |
| less depreciation | (36,432) | (39,538) | (45,570) | (52,711) | (64,347) | (78,503) | (95,774) | (1,16,844) | (1,42,549) |
| EBIT | 34,172 | 31,182 | 54,876 | 63,546 | 77,473 | 94,518 | 1,15,311 | 1,40,680 | 1,71,630 |
| less tax on EBIT | (16,077) | (19,601) | (23,913) | (29,174) | (35,592) | (43,422) | |||
| NOPAT | 47,469 | 57,873 | 70,605 | 86,138 | 1,05,088 | 1,28,207 | |||
| add depreciation | 36,432 | 39,538 | 45,570 | 52,711 | 64,347 | 78,503 | 95,774 | 1,16,844 | 1,42,549 |
| less capex | (26,057) | (38,192) | (37,908) | (45,176) | (55,081) | (73,950) | (98,455) | (1,30,164) | (1,71,059) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 39,268 | 40,707 | 60,425 | — | 67,139 | 75,158 | 83,456 | 91,768 | 99,697 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 63,725 | 64,267 | 64,291 | 63,688 | 62,335 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,21,671, dividends at 42.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 63,546 | 77,473 | 94,518 | 1,15,311 | 1,40,680 | 1,71,630 |
| Interest at 16% on debt | (19,467) | (19,467) | (19,467) | (19,467) | (19,467) | |
| Profit before tax | 58,006 | 75,050 | 95,844 | 1,21,213 | 1,52,162 | |
| Profit after tax | 26,695 | 43,330 | 56,062 | 71,595 | 90,546 | 1,13,665 |
| Dividends | (11,328) | (18,372) | (23,770) | (30,356) | (38,391) | (48,194) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 13,722 | 47,946 | 84,792 | 1,23,349 | 1,62,183 | 1,99,144 |
| Working capital | (36,414) | (36,414) | (36,414) | (36,414) | (36,414) | (36,414) |
| Net block and other assets | 5,74,844 | 5,65,578 | 5,61,025 | 5,63,706 | 5,77,027 | 6,05,537 |
| Debt | 1,21,671 | 1,21,671 | 1,21,671 | 1,21,671 | 1,21,671 | 1,21,671 |
| Equity | 1,95,963 | 2,20,922 | 2,53,214 | 2,94,453 | 3,46,607 | 4,12,078 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,07,677 | 1,34,565 | 1,67,369 | 2,07,390 | 2,56,215 | |
| Investing (capex) | (55,081) | (73,950) | (98,455) | (1,30,164) | (1,71,059) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (18,372) | (23,770) | (30,356) | (38,391) | (48,194) | |
| Net change in cash | 34,224 | 36,845 | 38,557 | 38,834 | 36,961 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 52,596 | 60,616 | 68,914 | 77,226 | 85,155 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 22% | 55.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,040 | 11.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.