Models
BILLIONBRAINS GARAGE VN LGROWWCapital Markets
₹66per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹66implied FY26 P/E 16.5× · EV/EBITDA 14.6×
Against CMP ₹200.00−67.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies37.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹51₹94
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹112₹227
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 9,743 |
| PV of terminal value | 30,289 |
| Enterprise value | 40,031 |
| less net debt | 941 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 40,972 |
| ÷ 624.14 crore shares | ₹66 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 68 | 73 | 78 | 85 | 94 |
| 10.50% | 63 | 67 | 71 | 77 | 84 |
| 11.00% | 58 | 62 | 66 | 70 | 76 |
| 11.50% | 55 | 57 | 61 | 65 | 69 |
| 12.00% | 51 | 54 | 57 | 60 | 64 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹200.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 55 · 65 · 78 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.44 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,645 | 5,016 | 5,417 | 5,851 | 6,319 | 6,824 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 2,746 | 2,965 | 3,202 | 3,458 | 3,734 | 4,033 |
| margin % | 59.1 | 59.1 | 59.1 | 59.1 | 59.1 | 59.1 |
| less depreciation | (48) | (50) | (54) | (59) | (63) | (68) |
| EBIT | 2,699 | 2,914 | 3,148 | 3,399 | 3,671 | 3,965 |
| less tax on EBIT | (704) | (761) | (822) | (887) | (958) | (1,035) |
| NOPAT | 1,994 | 2,154 | 2,326 | 2,512 | 2,713 | 2,930 |
| add depreciation | 48 | 50 | 54 | 59 | 63 | 68 |
| less capex | (12) | (15) | (28) | (44) | (62) | (82) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 2,189 | 2,352 | 2,527 | 2,715 | 2,916 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 2,078 | 2,011 | 1,946 | 1,884 | 1,823 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 224, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,699 | 2,914 | 3,148 | 3,399 | 3,671 | 3,965 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,896 | 3,130 | 3,381 | 3,653 | 3,947 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,083 | 2,140 | 2,313 | 2,499 | 2,700 | 2,917 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,165 | 3,341 | 5,680 | 8,193 | 10,894 | 13,798 |
| Working capital | (7,780) | (7,780) | (7,780) | (7,780) | (7,780) | (7,780) |
| Net block and other assets | 25,155 | 25,120 | 25,095 | 25,080 | 25,078 | 25,092 |
| Debt | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 |
| Equity | 9,651 | 11,792 | 14,105 | 16,603 | 19,303 | 22,220 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,191 | 2,367 | 2,557 | 2,763 | 2,985 | |
| Investing (capex) | (15) | (28) | (44) | (62) | (82) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 2,176 | 2,339 | 2,513 | 2,701 | 2,903 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,176 | 2,339 | 2,513 | 2,701 | 2,903 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 59.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹66 | (67.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.