Models
BIOCON LIMITED.BIOCONPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹-71per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(71)implied FY26 P/E (20.8)× · EV/EBITDA 0.3×
Against CMP ₹390.65−118.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31-52%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(72)₹(70)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹337₹447
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,342 |
| PV of terminal value | (458) |
| Enterprise value | 884 |
| less net debt | (12,408) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (11,524) |
| ÷ 162.97 crore shares | ₹(71) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (71) | (71) | (71) | (72) | (72) |
| 10.50% | (70) | (71) | (71) | (71) | (72) |
| 11.00% | (70) | (70) | (71) | (71) | (71) |
| 11.50% | (70) | (70) | (70) | (71) | (71) |
| 12.00% | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | (71) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹390.65; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (113) · (71) · (34) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | +0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,174 | 14,756 | 15,262 | 16,927 | 18,789 | 20,856 | 23,150 | 25,696 | 28,523 |
| growth % | 36.5 | 32.1 | 3.4 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 2,220 | 3,287 | 3,263 | 3,052 | 3,382 | 3,754 | 4,167 | 4,625 | 5,134 |
| margin % | 19.9 | 22.3 | 21.4 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| less depreciation | (1,113) | (1,569) | (1,687) | (1,957) | (2,180) | (2,419) | (2,685) | (2,981) | (3,309) |
| EBIT | 1,107 | 1,718 | 1,576 | 1,096 | 1,202 | 1,335 | 1,482 | 1,645 | 1,825 |
| less tax on EBIT | (194) | (213) | (236) | (262) | (291) | (323) | |||
| NOPAT | 902 | 990 | 1,099 | 1,219 | 1,353 | 1,502 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,113 | 1,569 | 1,687 | 1,957 | 2,180 | 2,419 | 2,685 | 2,981 | 3,309 |
| less capex | (1,596) | (1,681) | (2,137) | (1,798) | (1,992) | (2,384) | (2,838) | (3,364) | (3,970) |
| less working-capital build | — | (583) | (647) | (718) | (797) | (885) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 257 | 1,273 | 1,925 | — | 595 | 487 | 348 | 174 | (44) |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 565 | 416 | 268 | 120 | (28) |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 14,825, dividends at 23.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,096 | 1,202 | 1,335 | 1,482 | 1,645 | 1,825 |
| Interest at 6.1% on debt | (904) | (904) | (904) | (904) | (904) | |
| Profit before tax | 298 | 430 | 577 | 740 | 921 | |
| Profit after tax | 386 | 245 | 354 | 475 | 609 | 758 |
| Dividends | (91) | (58) | (83) | (112) | (143) | (178) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2,417 | 2,209 | 1,869 | 1,362 | 648 | (319) |
| Working capital | 5,301 | 5,883 | 6,530 | 7,248 | 8,046 | 8,930 |
| Net block and other assets | 55,933 | 55,746 | 55,710 | 55,863 | 56,246 | 56,907 |
| Debt | 14,825 | 14,825 | 14,825 | 14,825 | 14,825 | 14,825 |
| Equity | 36,622 | 36,809 | 37,080 | 37,444 | 37,910 | 38,490 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,842 | 2,127 | 2,442 | 2,793 | 3,182 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,992) | (2,384) | (2,838) | (3,364) | (3,970) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (58) | (83) | (112) | (143) | (178) | |
| Net change in cash | (207) | (340) | (507) | (714) | (966) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (149) | (257) | (396) | (571) | (788) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 18% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(71) | (118.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.