Models
BIRLA CORPORATION LTDBIRLACORPNCement & Cement Products
₹873per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹873implied FY26 P/E 12.1× · EV/EBITDA 6.8×
Against CMP ₹825.00+5.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies3.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹599₹1,419
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹770₹1,346
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,780 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,090 |
| Enterprise value | 9,870 |
| less net debt | (3,146) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,724 |
| ÷ 7.70 crore shares | ₹873 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 914 | 1,006 | 1,116 | 1,250 | 1,419 |
| 10.50% | 817 | 893 | 983 | 1,092 | 1,224 |
| 11.00% | 734 | 798 | 873 | 962 | 1,068 |
| 11.50% | 662 | 717 | 780 | 853 | 940 |
| 12.00% | 599 | 646 | 700 | 762 | 834 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹825.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 596 · 863 · 1,173 |
| Draws below the CMP | 43% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,682 | 9,663 | 9,214 | 9,656 | 10,138 | 10,645 | 11,178 | 11,736 | 12,323 |
| growth % | 16.4 | 11.3 | (4.6) | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 779 | 1,444 | 1,179 | 1,448 | 1,521 | 1,597 | 1,677 | 1,760 | 1,848 |
| margin % | 9.0 | 14.9 | 12.8 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| less depreciation | (510) | (578) | (572) | (532) | (558) | (585) | (615) | (646) | (678) |
| EBIT | 269 | 866 | 607 | 916 | 963 | 1,011 | 1,062 | 1,115 | 1,171 |
| less tax on EBIT | (251) | (264) | (277) | (291) | (305) | (321) | |||
| NOPAT | 665 | 699 | 734 | 771 | 809 | 850 | |||
| add depreciation | 510 | 578 | 572 | 532 | 558 | 585 | 615 | 646 | 678 |
| less capex | (631) | (529) | (445) | (469) | (497) | (567) | (643) | (725) | (813) |
| less working-capital build | — | (26) | (27) | (29) | (30) | (32) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 174 | 1,090 | 1,224 | — | 734 | 725 | 714 | 700 | 683 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 697 | 620 | 550 | 486 | 427 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3,275, dividends at 13.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 916 | 963 | 1,011 | 1,062 | 1,115 | 1,171 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (262) | (262) | (262) | (262) | (262) | |
| Profit before tax | 701 | 749 | 800 | 853 | 909 | |
| Profit after tax | 558 | 509 | 544 | 581 | 619 | 660 |
| Dividends | (77) | (70) | (75) | (80) | (85) | (91) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 130 | 603 | 1,063 | 1,507 | 1,932 | 2,333 |
| Working capital | 521 | 547 | 575 | 603 | 634 | 665 |
| Net block and other assets | 13,859 | 13,798 | 13,780 | 13,808 | 13,887 | 14,023 |
| Debt | 3,275 | 3,275 | 3,275 | 3,275 | 3,275 | 3,275 |
| Equity | 7,365 | 7,803 | 8,272 | 8,773 | 9,307 | 9,875 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,041 | 1,102 | 1,167 | 1,235 | 1,306 | |
| Investing (capex) | (497) | (567) | (643) | (725) | (813) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (70) | (75) | (80) | (85) | (91) | |
| Net change in cash | 474 | 460 | 444 | 424 | 401 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 544 | 535 | 524 | 510 | 492 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 15% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹873 | 5.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.