Models
BLACK BOX LIMITEDBBOXIT - Services
₹302per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹302implied FY26 P/E 23.0× · EV/EBITDA 11.2×
Against CMP ₹805.10−62.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹234₹439
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹443₹1,103
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,564 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,104 |
| Enterprise value | 5,668 |
| less net debt | (299) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,369 |
| ÷ 17.76 crore shares | ₹302 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 313 | 336 | 363 | 397 | 439 |
| 10.50% | 288 | 307 | 330 | 357 | 390 |
| 11.00% | 267 | 284 | 302 | 325 | 351 |
| 11.50% | 249 | 263 | 279 | 297 | 319 |
| 12.00% | 234 | 245 | 259 | 274 | 292 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹805.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 244 · 299 · 368 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.14 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,288 | 6,282 | 5,967 | 6,322 | 6,701 | 7,103 | 7,529 | 7,981 | 8,460 |
| growth % | 17.1 | (0.1) | (5.0) | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 227 | 393 | 464 | 507 | 536 | 568 | 602 | 638 | 677 |
| margin % | 3.6 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| less depreciation | (107) | (114) | (113) | (116) | (121) | (128) | (136) | (144) | (152) |
| EBIT | 119 | 278 | 351 | 391 | 415 | 440 | 467 | 495 | 525 |
| less tax on EBIT | (35) | (37) | (40) | (42) | (45) | (47) | |||
| NOPAT | 356 | 378 | 401 | 425 | 450 | 477 | |||
| add depreciation | 107 | 114 | 113 | 116 | 121 | 128 | 136 | 144 | 152 |
| less capex | (73) | (33) | (8) | (51) | (54) | (81) | (111) | (145) | (183) |
| less working-capital build | — | (41) | (43) | (46) | (49) | (52) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (55) | 102 | (96) | — | 404 | 404 | 403 | 400 | 395 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 384 | 346 | 310 | 278 | 247 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 827, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 391 | 415 | 440 | 467 | 495 | 525 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (66) | (66) | (66) | (66) | (66) | |
| Profit before tax | 349 | 374 | 401 | 429 | 458 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 318 | 341 | 365 | 390 | 417 |
| Dividends | (17) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 528 | 872 | 1,216 | 1,558 | 1,898 | 2,233 |
| Working capital | 686 | 727 | 770 | 816 | 865 | 917 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,080 | 3,013 | 2,966 | 2,942 | 2,944 | 2,974 |
| Debt | 827 | 827 | 827 | 827 | 827 | 827 |
| Equity | 1,287 | 1,605 | 1,945 | 2,310 | 2,700 | 3,117 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 398 | 425 | 454 | 485 | 518 | |
| Investing (capex) | (54) | (81) | (111) | (145) | (183) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 344 | 344 | 343 | 340 | 335 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 344 | 344 | 343 | 340 | 335 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹302 | (62.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.