Models
BLACKBUCK LIMITEDBLACKBUCKTransport Services
₹240per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹240implied FY26 P/E 25.9× · EV/EBITDA 26.4×
Against CMP ₹631.00−62.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹181₹358
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹496₹748
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 645 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,659 |
| Enterprise value | 4,303 |
| less net debt | 66 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,369 |
| ÷ 18.21 crore shares | ₹240 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 248 | 268 | 292 | 322 | 358 |
| 10.50% | 227 | 244 | 264 | 287 | 316 |
| 11.00% | 210 | 224 | 240 | 259 | 282 |
| 11.50% | 194 | 206 | 220 | 236 | 255 |
| 12.00% | 181 | 191 | 203 | 216 | 232 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹631.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 169 · 238 · 332 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.46 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 427 | 652 | 848 | 1,102 | 1,432 | 1,862 | 2,421 |
| growth % | — | 52.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (281) | 163 | 212 | 275 | 358 | 466 | 605 |
| margin % | (65.8) | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| less depreciation | (34) | (53) | (69) | (89) | (116) | (151) | (196) |
| EBIT | (315) | 110 | 143 | 186 | 242 | 315 | 409 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (6) | (8) | (10) | (14) | (18) | |
| NOPAT | 106 | 137 | 178 | 232 | 301 | 392 | |
| add depreciation | 34 | 53 | 69 | 89 | 116 | 151 | 196 |
| less capex | (44) | (112) | (146) | (169) | (193) | (216) | (235) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 15 | — | 60 | 99 | 155 | 236 | 352 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 57 | 84 | 119 | 164 | 220 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 26, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 110 | 143 | 186 | 242 | 315 | 409 |
| Interest at 19.7% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 138 | 181 | 237 | 310 | 404 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 132 | 173 | 227 | 296 | 387 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 92 | 147 | 240 | 390 | 622 | 969 |
| Working capital | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) |
| Net block and other assets | 1,655 | 1,732 | 1,812 | 1,889 | 1,954 | 1,993 |
| Debt | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Equity | 1,422 | 1,554 | 1,727 | 1,954 | 2,250 | 2,637 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 201 | 263 | 343 | 447 | 583 | |
| Investing (capex) | (146) | (169) | (193) | (216) | (235) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 55 | 94 | 150 | 231 | 347 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 55 | 94 | 150 | 231 | 347 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 25% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹240 | (62.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.