Models
BLUE DART EXPRESS LTDBLUEDARTTransport Services
₹1,697per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,697implied FY26 P/E 14.0× · EV/EBITDA 4.4×
Against CMP ₹4,842.00−65.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3160%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,391₹2,301
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹4,629₹7,036
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,583 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,405 |
| Enterprise value | 3,988 |
| less net debt | 38 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,026 |
| ÷ 2.37 crore shares | ₹1,697 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,745 | 1,846 | 1,967 | 2,115 | 2,301 |
| 10.50% | 1,637 | 1,721 | 1,820 | 1,939 | 2,084 |
| 11.00% | 1,544 | 1,614 | 1,697 | 1,794 | 1,911 |
| 11.50% | 1,463 | 1,523 | 1,592 | 1,673 | 1,769 |
| 12.00% | 1,391 | 1,443 | 1,502 | 1,570 | 1,650 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,842.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,095 · 1,680 · 2,297 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.95 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.25 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,172 | 5,268 | 5,720 | 6,141 | 6,601 | 7,097 | 7,629 | 8,201 | 8,816 |
| growth % | 17.3 | 1.8 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 937 | 853 | 873 | 907 | 977 | 1,050 | 1,129 | 1,214 | 1,305 |
| margin % | 18.1 | 16.2 | 15.3 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 |
| less depreciation | (394) | (433) | (485) | (536) | (574) | (617) | (664) | (713) | (767) |
| EBIT | 543 | 420 | 388 | 370 | 403 | 433 | 465 | 500 | 538 |
| less tax on EBIT | (90) | (98) | (105) | (113) | (122) | (131) | |||
| NOPAT | 280 | 305 | 328 | 352 | 379 | 407 | |||
| add depreciation | 394 | 433 | 485 | 536 | 574 | 617 | 664 | 713 | 767 |
| less capex | (571) | (268) | (254) | (315) | (337) | (457) | (593) | (747) | (920) |
| less working-capital build | — | (17) | (18) | (19) | (21) | (22) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 145 | 579 | 481 | — | 526 | 471 | 404 | 325 | 232 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 499 | 402 | 311 | 225 | 145 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 200, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 370 | 403 | 433 | 465 | 500 | 538 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | |
| Profit before tax | 387 | 417 | 449 | 484 | 522 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 293 | 316 | 340 | 367 | 395 |
| Dividends | (59) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 238 | 752 | 1,210 | 1,602 | 1,915 | 2,134 |
| Working capital | 219 | 235 | 253 | 272 | 293 | 315 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,670 | 3,432 | 3,272 | 3,201 | 3,234 | 3,387 |
| Debt | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 |
| Equity | 1,777 | 2,070 | 2,385 | 2,725 | 3,092 | 3,487 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 850 | 915 | 985 | 1,059 | 1,140 | |
| Investing (capex) | (337) | (457) | (593) | (747) | (920) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 514 | 458 | 392 | 313 | 219 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 514 | 458 | 392 | 313 | 219 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 14.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,697 | (65.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.